Polygraph

The Daily Blast: Trump Unravels as Early-Voting Data Is So Brutal It Even Rattles MAGA

The DSR Network, Checked

Polygraph score
80Holds up15 claims checked
Details
What it claims
3 false2 mixed4 can’t tell12 true
How it argues
Nothing found
How it persuades
Nothing found
What it’s built on
Nothing found
Sources
2 rated low
The DSR NetworkOct 27, 2026
View on Podcast ↗
The DSR Network cover art
The DSR NetworkThe Daily Blast: Trump Unravels as Early-Voting Data Is So Brutal It Even Rattles MAGAWhole episode, 22:24
21 claims

What it claims

Claims

  1. 1TrueDonald Trump opposed Senator Lisa Murkowski regarding the Alaska Senate race.Multiple sources show Trump publicly attacked Sen. Lisa Murkowski on Truth Social over her opposition to the DOJ lawsuit tied to the Alaska Senate race, calling her the Republicans' 'Worst Senator.' The claim's wording is a faithful, if vaguer, paraphrase of the post, which says Murkowski opposed Trump's effort; the mutual opposition is what the sources document.5 sources →
  2. 2TrueDonald Trump stated that the Brazilian election looked like a rigged election.Multiple tier-1 outlets (Reuters, AP, The Hill, Politico) directly quote Trump on Monday, October 26, 2026, saying the Brazilian election "looked like another rigged election" and that it looked bad, though he offered no evidence and said he did not take sides. The claim is faithfully extracted from the passage and is accurate as of the posting date.7 sources →
  3. 3TrueSimon Rosenberg tracks early voting data at his Hopium Chronicles Substack.Simon Rosenberg's Hopium Chronicles Substack published an early-vote analysis on 2026-10-23, and the New Republic article of 2026-10-27 describes him as closely tracking early voting through that Substack. The claim matches the passage faithfully and is supported as of 2026-10-27.2 sources →
  4. 4Can’t tellDemocrats are trying to steal the Alaska Senate seat.The claim repeats Trump's accusation that Democrats are trying to steal the Alaska Senate seat. Reporting describes a New York Times account and a Justice Department investigation alleging Democratic-linked operatives recruited a spoiler candidate, but no authority has yet adjudicated the allegation, so the central claim cannot be graded either way; the claim also adopts the 'steal' characterization beyond what the sources establish.6 sources →

    ▶ 1:33

  5. 5PredictionThe Democrats will win the Senate race in Alaska if they take that seat, and Democrats are likely to take the House.Can't be checked yet. We check it after Nov 3, 2026.

    ▶ 1:48

  6. 6TrueBrent crude oil is priced at 115 dollars per barrel.On 2026-10-27, Brent was trading at roughly $115 a barrel: Reuters quoted $115.15 early that day, and other outlets reported $114.72 to $116.42 intraday, with the EIA spot price for Oct 20 at $115.22. The post said Brent was "up" at "1:15", which the extraction read as $115; the extracted claim drops the "up", and Brent actually fell on Oct 27 (settling near $113.88), so the directional part of the post is contradicted even though the price level holds.8 sources →

    ▶ 2:04

  7. 7FalseThe generic ballot polling average is plus 11 for Democrats.The claim that the generic ballot polling average was plus 11 for Democrats on 2026-10-27 is contradicted by the aggregate averages in the sources, which put the lead at roughly D+8 to D+9 (CNN Poll of Polls D+9 for 10/12-10/26; PollsMax D+8.7 on 10/23; Silver Bulletin 8.7 on 10/28 after a peak of 9.2). The +11 figure matches only the single NYT/Siena poll, which the post's speaker appears to be citing, so the claim conflates one poll with the average.4 sources →

    ▶ 2:27

  8. 8TrueDonald Trump stated that anyone reporting voter fraud in past elections or the 2026 midterm election will be paid 1 million dollars upon the arrest and conviction of those who created the fraud.Multiple reliable outlets, including Reuters, NBC News and The New York Times, directly quote Trump's October 26, 2026 Truth Social post promising $1 million for reporting voter fraud that leads to arrest and conviction, covering both past elections and the 2026 midterms. The extracted claim matches the post's wording, and the sources do not dispute that he made the statement. Sources note that the funding source and administration of the reward were not specified, which does not affect whether he stated it.5 sources →

    ▶ 2:44

  9. 9TrueOver 40 states are currently reporting early voting data.Sources published days after the 2026-10-27 claim report early voting data from 46 to 47 states plus D.C., so 'over 40 states' is supported as of the claim date. The AP-compiled figures (47 states) and a tracker-based count (46 states) agree, though the 47-state AP figure is dated 10-30 and the 46-state count 10-28, so both postdate the claim by a few days.7 sources →

    ▶ 5:32

  10. 10False27 million people have voted early nationwide as of October 26, 2026.The claimed 27 million early votes as of October 26 is below the counts reported for that date: the University of Florida Election Lab dashboard showed 30,263,458 at 1:45pm ET on October 26, and Fox Baltimore reported more than 30 million. The 27 million figure matches the Election Lab count reported a day earlier (27.7 to 28 million on October 25), so it appears to be an older snapshot.5 sources →

    ▶ 5:55

  11. 11FalseThe current early vote is 53% Democratic and 39% Republican.The claim's 53% Democratic and 39% Republican split for the early vote does not match any source's national figures around 2026-10-27. Same-period reporting shows roughly 45-46% Democratic and about 30% Republican by party registration, and the claim's 39% Republican share is not supported by any source. Later data (about 43% Democratic and 32% Republican by 10-31) also does not match, and the post's own 53/39 figures are unsourced.5 sources →

    ▶ 6:16

  12. 12MixedThe partisan breakdown of the early vote at this point in 2024 was 47% Democratic and 44% Republican.The post's 2024 comparison (47-44, a three-point Democratic lead) is faithfully extracted, but no source gives this national 2024 breakdown. The closest 2024 figures disagree: CNN's October 2024 analysis of 27 states shows Democrats at 39% and Republicans at 35% of the early vote (a four-point lead at different levels), while an unrated IBTimes piece cites a six-point Democratic turnout lead at the same point in 2024.3 sources →

    ▶ 6:39

  13. 13MixedHispanic voter participation in early voting is 41% higher than at this point in 2022.The direction is supported: Hispanic early voting is well above 2022 levels. But the 41% figure does not match the national count in the sources, where TargetSmart shows 3.8 million Hispanic voters versus 2.35 million in 2022, an increase of roughly 62%. Texas (about 87%) and Mecklenburg County (about tripling) show larger increases still, and no source reports a share-based 41% figure, so the claim's magnitude depends on the measure used.4 sources →

    ▶ 8:24

  14. 14Can’t tellThe early voting electorate is currently 70% white, compared to 75% white at this point in 2022.No source reports a national early-voting racial breakdown, so the 70% and 75% white figures cannot be checked. The only race data in the sources covers individual states, such as Georgia, where the white share fell from 58.2% to 52.6%.3 sources →

    ▶ 8:29

  15. 15FalseThe Black vote share in North Carolina early voting is almost double what it has been in the past.The claim that the Black share of North Carolina early voting is almost double its past level is not supported. Sources on the same data put Black voters at roughly 21-22% of early ballots against about 19% of registered voters, and about 18-20% in past midterm and presidential cycles, a rise of a few percentage points rather than a doubling. The 60%+ increase in Black ballots compared with 2022 is a rise in raw numbers, not in share, and the speaker appears to have conflated the two.4 sources →

    ▶ 11:33

  16. 16TrueDonald Trump is campaigning and spending money in South Carolina and Mississippi.Multiple sources, including NPR and The Latest/AP-syndicated reporting, show Trump campaigned in Mississippi on October 26, 2026, and that he was in or planned stops in South Carolina (Oct. 21 visit and a return the following week) during his closing rally blitz. Spending is supported by reporting that the Republican-aligned Senate Leadership Fund put money into South Carolina and Mississippi races, though the sources describe the PAC spending rather than Trump personally spending money. The claim is judged as of 2026-10-27, when the closing campaign swing was underway; the post's wording is a faithful paraphrase and the 'spending money' element is best read as campaign spending supporting Republican candidates.8 sources →

    ▶ 14:28

  17. 17TrueDemocrats have not won a statewide race in Texas in 32 years.Multiple tier1 and tier2 sources (Reuters, AP, NPR, NYT video) report that no Democrat has won a statewide race in Texas since 1994, which is 32 years before 2026. The extraction faithfully reflects the post, which referred to the same 32-year span, and the claim's figure matches the sources.8 sources →

    ▶ 17:25

  18. 18TrueThe Republican campaign is spending money in the final week of the election in Nebraska, Kansas, Mississippi, and South Carolina.Multiple sources report Republican-aligned spending in the final week before the election in Kansas, South Carolina, Nebraska, and Mississippi. The Washington Times (Oct 26) reports Senate Leadership Fund ad buys in all four states, CNN reports final-week Senate ad spending in Kansas and South Carolina, and WIRED reports about $14 million across the four states in the final stretch. The claim does not depart from the passage, and the spending was documented as of Oct 27.4 sources →

    ▶ 19:03

  19. 19TrueDonald Trump is campaigning in South Carolina twice in the final two weeks of the election.Trump's South Carolina campaign visits in the final two weeks before the November 3 election are documented: a Clemson/Pendleton rally on October 21 and a Rock Hill rally on October 29. As of the October 27 posting date, the Rock Hill visit had already been announced by the RNC, so the claim held then, and the trip took place as scheduled.7 sources →

    ▶ 19:16

  20. 20TrueThe New York Times reported that Donald Trump hit a new low in polling.The New York Times/Siena poll published October 21, 2026 reported that Trump's approval hit a new low (36% approve, 59% disapprove), its lowest in any Times/Siena poll, so the claim that the NYT reported a new polling low is supported. The claimant's broader point that every article said so is not checked, and the extraction matches the passage's NYT reference.6 sources →

    ▶ 2:18

  21. 21TrueThe Hispanic vote share in early voting is 35% higher in Texas, 44% in California, 15% in Arizona, 25% in New Mexico, 35% in Colorado, 51% in Illinois, 84% in Virginia, 70% in New York, 45% in Nevada, 59% in New Jersey, and 58% in Georgia.The Washington Post, citing TargetSmart data as of Tuesday October 27, reports Texas +37%, California +44%, New York +71%, and Virginia +86% in the Hispanic share of early votes, which closely matches the claim's 35%, 44%, 70%, and 84% within a point or two. No source gives figures for Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, or Georgia, so those elements are unaddressed rather than contradicted; the claim also says the post's own "higher" phrasing was dropped for some states, which is a faithful paraphrase. Later coverage (Nov 1 NBC via Politicalwire) reports a different measure, an 87.2% rise in Hispanic voter counts in Texas, which does not change the share-based figure.4 sources →

    ▶ 9:38

  22. 22MixedDemocrats are polling a point or two ahead in Senate races in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska.Polling averages from late October show Democrats ahead in all three races, but by different margins: Alaska is about 2 points, while Texas (about 3.9) and Ohio (about 2.8 to 4.7) run somewhat above 'a point or two'. The claim's direction is right, and its figures fall within the range of individual polls, but they understate the averages for Texas and Ohio.7 sources →

    ▶ 16:03

  23. 23OpinionThe host characterizes Donald Trump as unraveling and erratic, a verdict on him.A judgement, not a statement of fact. It has no true or false answer.

Sources

Fact-checkers 10Primary records 1Most reliable outlets 3Reliable outlets 19Less reliable outlets 1Unrated 69Rated low 2

Related posts

How Polygraph reads a postHow often are we wrong?

Our Weekly Newsletter

The Readout

The week's most-shared posts, checked. What they claimed, how they argued, and what held up.

Unsubscribe any time. See our privacy policy.