The current early vote is 53% Democratic and 39% Republican.
Posted by The DSR Network, Checked
- Sources
- 3 contradict2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
The DSR NetworkOct 27, 2026
The claim's 53% Democratic and 39% Republican split for the early vote does not match any source's national figures around 2026-10-27. Same-period reporting shows roughly 45-46% Democratic and about 30% Republican by party registration, and the claim's 39% Republican share is not supported by any source.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… So turnout is up, it's, and which is a sign of intensity, which is a good sign for us. Okay, so 27 million people have voted early as of right now. We think 53% of the early vote is Democratic? Yeah, and 39% Republican. So we, you know, we, we will, it, this is a good number, and, and we should be happy with that number, in part because we've seen turnout being, you know, turnout has come up so much since '22. Okay, so 53 to 39, Democrat to Republican. What was it in 2024? …
The DSR Network · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. A 2026-10-26 report on the early-vote tracker puts the national early vote at about 45% Democratic and about 30% Republican, based on party registration in over two dozen states, well below the claimed 53% and 39%.[2]
Contradicts. A 2026-10-23 report cites about 46% of early ballots from registered Democrats and about 30% from registered Republicans in states that provide party data, again inconsistent with the claimed 53/39 split.[3]
Contradicts. A 2026-10-13 NBC tracker shows registered Democrats at 46% and registered Republicans at 35% of the early vote, the closest published Republican share but still short of 39% alongside a 53% Democratic share.[1]
Context. Other measures differ: a 2026-10-15 analysis reports 51.1% Democratic and 28.7% Republican among early votes in states that record partisan ID, and a modeled Ohio estimate from TargetEarly shows 49% Democratic and 43% Republican. None of these matches the claimed 53/39 national split.[4][5]
Context. The claim's 14-point Democratic lead is roughly consistent with some reported margins (around 15 points on 10-26), but the claimed shares themselves are not supported.[2]
Sources
5 sources: 1 tier 2, 4 not rated
- 1Tracking the 2026 Early Vote: Midterm Elections - NBC Newsnbcnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
- 2Early voting outpacing last midterm, with Democratic participation ...wjla.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, context
- 3Democrats tout momentum as early voting rises ahead of ...nbc26.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 42026 Midterm Early Voting Shows Democratic Enthusiasmthinkbigpicture.substack.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 5Ohio early voting approaches record as election nearssignalohio.org · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
Related claims
- The partisan breakdown of the early vote at this point in 2024 was 47% Democratic and 44% Republican.Mixed
- In Senate battleground states, registered Democrats make up 47% of early voters and registered Republicans make up 35%.Mixed
- The early voting electorate is currently 70% white, compared to 75% white at this point in 2022.Can’t tell
- Democratic early voting is surging.True
- Over 40 states are currently reporting early voting data.True