Polygraph

This Can't Be Real Life (Ep. 2618) - 10/16/2026

The Dan Bongino Show, Checked

Polygraph score
71Mostly holds52 claims checked
Details
What it claims
5 false19 mixed13 can’t tell37 true
How it argues
Nothing found
How it persuades
Nothing found
What it’s built on
Nothing found
Sources
7 rated low
The Dan Bongino ShowOct 16, 2026
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The Dan Bongino Show cover art
The Dan Bongino ShowThis Can't Be Real Life (Ep. 2618) - 10/16/2026Whole episode, 1:28:46
74 claims

What it claims

Claims

  1. 1TrueThe Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against California regarding the eligibility of voters on a list of 20,000 likely noncitizens.The DOJ filed suit against California on October 15, 2026 over a list of roughly 20,000 people it says are likely noncitizens registered to vote, as confirmed by a DOJ press release, Politico, CNN, and AP coverage. The claim's core assertion is fully supported; the post and the extraction match.6 sources →
  2. 2TrueThree children and one adult were killed in an elementary school shooting in Oregon.Multiple independent outlets, including Reuters, AP, NBC, and the Washington Post, report that a 16-year-old gunman killed three children (ages 5, 8, and 11) and one adult teacher at Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend, Oregon, on October 15, 2026. The claim's core facts match the sources, and the extraction faithfully reflects the post.9 sources →
  3. 3TrueThe suspected gunman in the Oregon elementary school shooting is dead.Multiple tier1 and tier2 sources (Reuters, AP, NBC, CNN, police statements) report that the 16-year-old suspected gunman in the Bend, Oregon Silver Rail Elementary shooting was shot and found dead inside the school by a community member, with police confirming he was dead on officers' arrival. The claim matches the passage's wording and the sources confirm the core assertion; the claimed event occurred October 15, 2026, and the claim does not depart from the post.6 sources →
  4. 4TrueDonald Trump denied a report claiming he is considering replacing Susie Wiles.Multiple sources (CNN, Yahoo, NBC Palm Springs, ABC News 4) report Trump publicly denied Politico's report that he was considering replacing chief of staff Susie Wiles, calling it "fake news" and saying she has his "COMPLETE confidence"; the claim matches the post's headline and the claim is about the denial, which is documented. Some sources date the denial to Thursday and others to Friday, a minor detail that does not affect the core assertion.6 sources →
  5. 5TrueSteve Hilton is a candidate running a statewide campaign in California.Multiple independent reliable sources (AP, CBS San Francisco, NYT, KTLA, ABC30) show Steve Hilton was the Republican nominee for California governor running a statewide campaign as of October 2026, consistent with the claim as of 2026-10-16. The 'really effective' characterization is opinion from the claimant and is not separately graded; the core assertion that he is a statewide candidate is supported.7 sources →

    ▶ 0:28

  6. 6TrueCarShield has been helping drivers for over 20 years.Multiple independent sources say CarShield was founded in 2005, which makes it over 20 years old as of the 2026 check date, and Cars.com (2026) states it has been in operation for over 20 years. No source contradicts this. The claim matches the passage, and the 2024 FTC settlement coverage does not bear on company age.7 sources →

    ▶ 3:57

  7. 7TrueCarShield has covered more than 2 million vehicles.Multiple sources report CarShield has covered or protected more than 2 million vehicles, and the post's wording matches the extraction. Those figures trace largely to CarShield's own statements, with no independent audit, and the 2026 homepage claim of '3 MILLION+' does not contradict a 'more than 2 million' figure. The 'over 20 years' detail is consistent with the company's 2005 founding reported by Cars.com and CNBC.6 sources →

    ▶ 3:57

  8. 8TrueDonald Trump is 80 years old.Trump was born June 14, 1946, so he turned 80 on June 14, 2026 and was 80 on the claim's date of 2026-10-16. The claim matches the post's wording, and the 2024 Full Fact piece giving his age as 78 predates the 2026 birthday, so it does not contradict it.7 sources →

    ▶ 5:42

  9. 9TrueElon Musk is worth close to a trillion dollars in value.As of the October 16, 2026 posting, Musk's net worth sat in the roughly $950 billion to $1 trillion range, with Forbes putting it at $952.8 billion on October 14 and Yahoo at $977.2 billion on October 13, so 'close to a trillion dollars' is supported. The sources show the figure swinging around the trillion line, and it dipped below $1 trillion in early October, which the post does not contradict.5 sources →

    ▶ 9:04

  10. 10TrueSpaceX catches rockets in the air.SpaceX has caught rocket boosters mid-air with its launch-tower arms, first during Starship flight 5 in October 2024 and again in a later January 2025 booster catch at the pad. The claim's plural, habitual phrasing rests on these catches, and the post's reference to catching rockets in mid-air matches the reporting.5 sources →

    ▶ 10:46

  11. 11Can’t tellOver 90 percent of the world's great entrepreneurs are located in or building their businesses in the United States.None of the provided sources measures what share of the world's "great entrepreneurs" are located in or building businesses in the United States, so the 90 percent figure cannot be checked. The closest figures are a blog estimate of about 31 million US entrepreneurs out of 582 million worldwide (source 8, unrated) and a Schumpeter paper on billionaire entrepreneurs (source 11), neither of which measures the claimed share. The extraction matches the passage's wording, and the claim was made on 2026-10-16.3 sources →

    ▶ 11:56

  12. 12TrueTroy Jackson is a Democrat running for office in Maine.Multiple independent sources (AP, NBC, Maine Public, Maine Morning Star, GMA) confirm Troy Jackson became the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine in July 2026 and was campaigning against Republican Sen. Susan Collins through October 2026, so he was a Democrat running for office in Maine as of 2026-10-16. The post's 'communist' label is opinion and is not part of the extracted claim.7 sources →

    ▶ 14:41

  13. 13TrueKate Zachariah has not passed the bar exam.Multiple reliable sources, including Reuters and ABC News, report that White House press secretary Katie Zacharia (also spelled Zachariah) said in a Fox News interview on October 15, 2026 that she did not pass the bar exam, and NBC News cites a senior administration official saying the same. The claim matches the post's wording and the sources as of 2026-10-16; the post's 'She said she didn't pass the bar' is also supported by these reports.5 sources →

    ▶ 17:27

  14. 14MixedDonald Trump received 99% of the MAGA GOP vote in the 2024 election.The 99% figure is attributed to CNN analyst Harry Enten's analysis, and it is repeated by outlets (Mediaite, Yahoo, Alternet, Trump.fm transcript) that trace back to that same segment, so it is not independently confirmed. YouGov's independent tracking reports that 87% of current MAGA Republicans voted for Trump in 2024, a different measure that suggests a lower figure, so the claimed number depends on which measure is used. The claim matches the passage faithfully.6 sources →

    ▶ 19:43

  15. 15MixedDonald Trump's current approval rating among the MAGA GOP is 98%.As of 2026-10-16, the most recent MAGA-specific approval figure in the sources is 95%, from the Fox News poll conducted October 9-12 (down from 98% in its September poll), so calling 98% the current number is not what the latest data shows. The 98% figure matches the earlier September reading, and the 95-98% range sits within the poll margins, so the claim is directionally right but its 'current' figure is stale. Later coverage (Oct 29 Mediaite/Alternet, citing Trump's 99% claim) does not change the October 16 assessment.5 sources →

    ▶ 19:54

  16. 16FalseApproximately 15% of users quit weight loss injections because of the cost.The claim's 15% figure does not match the cost data: primary and tier-1 studies find cost or insurance was the leading reason for stopping, at about 48% of discontinuers, which works out to roughly a quarter of all users. The 15% figure in the sources is the side-effect share, not the cost share. The claim departs from the post only in the sense that the post says the same thing, so it is graded as the post's own statement.6 sources →

    ▶ 23:01

  17. 17Can’t tellDan Bongino lost 40 pounds using Lean nutritional supplement.The claim faithfully extracts the post's own self-reported figure ('about 40' pounds), but no independent source confirms it. The only figures in the sources are the speaker's own ad and podcast statements: about 28 pounds in a 2024 transcript and 'over 30' in 2026 transcripts, which are not authoritative and do not directly contradict a 40-pound loss.7 sources →

    ▶ 23:10

  18. 18TrueDonald Trump is not running for office again.As of 2026-10-16, Trump was not on the 2026 midterm ballot and had not declared a 2028 candidacy, and the sources say the 22nd Amendment bars him from another term, so the post's point that he is not running again holds. However, he repeatedly teased a third run and said he'd 'love to run' (Oct 23 and Nov 1 reports, after the post date), and the literal wording 'not running for office again' is stronger than what the sources show about 2028.7 sources →

    ▶ 25:58

  19. 19FalseRepublicans lead in mail-in ballot return rates in Florida.Florida's Division of Elections data reported in late October 2026 show Democrats leading in mail-in ballot returns, not Republicans, and no source reports a Republican mail-return lead. No source covers the exact 2026-10-16 date, so this rests on the earliest reported figures (Oct. 23) and the consistent trend after.6 sources →

    ▶ 26:35

  20. 20TrueThe FBI, HSI, and DOJ announced the arrest and indictment of ten individuals in North Carolina accused of illegal voting.The claim is supported: DHS/HSI and FBI announced the arrest of ten people in North Carolina for illegal voting on October 14–15, and DOJ announced indictments of ten individuals, as reported by the DHS release, FBI Director Patel's post, and the News & Observer. The post's phrase "nine other citizens" conflicts with sources describing them as noncitizens (mostly lawful permanent residents), but the extracted claim does not repeat that detail, so it is not graded.5 sources →

    ▶ 29:28

  21. 21MixedTen individuals, including one illegal alien and nine citizens, were arrested and indicted for illegal voting in North Carolina.The record supports that ten people were arrested and indicted for illegal voting in North Carolina, including one illegal alien from El Salvador. It contradicts the 'nine citizens' element: the other nine are lawful permanent residents or noncitizens, not U.S. citizens, and all were charged with falsely claiming citizenship to vote. The claim's wording also matches the post's own 'nine other citizens', so the error originates in the post, not the extraction.4 sources →

    ▶ 29:30

  22. 22TrueSenate Democrats plan to send more than 100 congressional staff members to observe voting sites in nine states.Multiple sources, including the Senate Democrats' own press release dated 2026-10-14 and wire/news coverage, confirm that Senate Democrats recruited and trained more than 100 congressional staff to be deployed as observers to polling sites across nine states, described as the first-of-its-kind Senate program. The claim's 'plan to send' framing matches the 2026-10-16 posting date, and the extraction faithfully reflects the passage's wording.6 sources →

    ▶ 31:03

  23. 23TrueSpeaker Mike Johnson has maintained a House majority of one or two members.Sources show Johnson's working House majority was at times only about one or two votes: the NYT (Jan 2026) said he could afford just two defections and expected that to shrink to one, and Reuters (July 2026) said he could lose no more than two Republican votes. The post's 'at times' qualifier is dropped in the claim's 'has maintained' phrasing, but the core assertion holds; CNN (June 2026) reported a wider three-defection margin at one point, which does not contradict the 'at times' reading. Ahead of the November 2026 election, ABC and WTOP describe a 218-214 or 218-212 seat split, so the margin was narrow but reporting varies on the exact number.4 sources →

    ▶ 33:45

  24. 24FalseThe tax legislation enacted during the Trump administration was the largest tax cut in U.S. history.Multiple tier-1 fact-checks (PolitiFact rating 'Mostly False', Tax Foundation, FactCheck.org, AP, BBC) and the CBO-based analyses find the One Big Beautiful Bill is not the largest U.S. tax cut in history; it ranks sixth as a share of GDP on new cuts, or third when combined with the extended 2017 cuts. The claim is a checkable historical superlative that the authoritative record contradicts, so it is false, though the post's wider context refers to the 2025 law which the claim correctly identifies.9 sources →

    ▶ 34:53

  25. 25FalseThe Trump administration enacted the largest spending cut of inefficient, wasteful government spending in history.The claim that the Trump administration enacted the largest spending cut of inefficient, wasteful government spending in history is not corroborated by any independent source. The only related support is a House member's claim of the largest cut in mandatory spending, which is a different measure, and the FactCheck.org archive dismisses similar 'biggest budget cut in history' superlatives as unsupportable. The claim also departs from the passage only in dropping the 'We also did' framing, which is a faithful paraphrase.4 sources →

    ▶ 34:55

  26. 26MixedThe average Louisianan received a tax cut of $2,915 due to the working families tax cut bill.The $2,915 figure is close to the roughly $2,900 Louisiana average that the Tax Foundation estimated, and AP ties it to the bill's preserved rates and brackets, so the core is supported. But that is a modeled 2026 tax reduction rather than money received, and actual refund increases were far smaller (about $350 nationally), so the claim depends on which measure is used.8 sources →

    ▶ 35:05

  27. 27Can’t tellThe average household income increased by almost $5,400 due to the implementation of the working families tax cut bill.No independent source confirms that average household income rose by almost $5,400 because of the Working Families Tax Cuts. The only source repeating the $5,400 figure is the Speaker's own press release, which is circular, and the nearby tax-cut figures ($2,272 average, $2,915 in Louisiana) measure something different.5 sources →

    ▶ 35:16

  28. 28TrueThe Trump administration has not released a single illegal alien into the country in 16 straight months.DHS and CBP report 16 consecutive months of zero Border Patrol releases at the border through August 2026, and the White House repeated the figure, so the claim holds as of 2026-10-16. The sources measure releases at the border, not every release into the country, and AP notes ICE still releases some detainees on bond, so the claim's broader wording goes beyond the record.5 sources →

    ▶ 35:30

  29. 29TrueOne million private sector jobs have been created in the United States in the last 19 months.FactCheck.org's October 2026 tally shows 1,006,000 private-sector jobs added from January 2025 through September 2026, and the White House says the private sector has created over one million jobs under Trump, so the figure is supported at roughly the claimed magnitude. The claim's 19-month window does not match the sources' roughly 20-month period exactly, and BLS benchmark revisions have lowered recent job growth, so confidence is moderate.4 sources →

    ▶ 35:37

  30. 30MixedPrescription drug prices are at their lowest level in 60 years.The record supports a reading of the claim: US prescription drug prices fell 3.1% year over year in July 2026, the steepest annual drop since 1963 (AP, Inquirer, BLS data). No source says the price level itself is the lowest in 60 years, so the literal claim is unsupported, and the post's 'lowest prescription drug prices in 60 years' is faithfully extracted. Sources as of 2026-10-16 do not show a level record, only a one-year decline record.8 sources →

    ▶ 35:43

  31. 31TrueSNAP usage is at its lowest level since 2009.As of 2026-10-16, national SNAP participation was at its lowest level since 2009: CBPP reported June 2026 was the lowest since August 2009, and later USDA-based coverage put July 2026 at the lowest since July 2009. The extracted claim drops the post's "nearly 7 million since Donald Trump took office" detail, which is not graded here; the sources date the peak to October 2024, before Trump's January 2025 inauguration.4 sources →

    ▶ 37:32

  32. 32MixedSNAP usage has fallen by nearly 7 million since Donald Trump took office.SNAP participation has fallen since Trump took office, but the size of the drop depends on the measure and period. FRAC's dashboard, using USDA data through July 2026, puts the decline at about 6.3 million, while PolitiFact's January 2026 analysis found around 7 million under flawed data, so "nearly 7 million" overstates the latest figure, and other sources give smaller figures for different periods.Minor detail. The sources confirm the claim; only a minor detail differs, such as a name's spelling, a title's wording or a rounding.5 sources →

    ▶ 37:35

  33. 33MixedDonald Trump is the first president in modern U.S. history to dramatically cut the federal workforce.The claim's core trend is well supported: the federal workforce fell about 10-12% under Trump's second term, with more than 320,000 departures. The 'first president in modern history' framing is only partly corroborated: City Journal calls it the fastest decline since WWII and WDSU calls it the largest in two decades, but a 2018 GovExec piece says Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Clinton cut more in their first years, and no source states the 'first president' claim directly.7 sources →

    ▶ 37:42

  34. 34TrueJoe Rogan's show has upwards of 10 million listeners.Two October 2026 pieces (Geekblog and UniladTech, both dated 2026-10-09) report the show averages about 11 million listeners per episode, and MillionPodcasts lists an estimated 20.9M monthly listeners, so the claim that it has upwards of 10 million listeners holds as of 2026-10-16. The post hedged with "If that's accurate," which the extracted claim drops, and the sources are low-credibility aggregators or blogs rather than tier-1 measurement data.8 sources →

    ▶ 40:54

  35. 35FalseThe violent crime rate is the lowest it has been in modern American history.The claim that the violent crime rate is the lowest in modern American history is contradicted by the BBC's analysis of FBI data, which says the 2024 rate was the lowest since 1969 and that the 2025 rate is predicted to be the lowest since roughly 1968, implying earlier rates were at least as low. The sources support a real and record one-year drop in 2025 but not the all-time superlative. The post's date is 2026-10-16, and the claim is graded on the sources' data through its posting.6 sources →

    ▶ 41:14

  36. 36Can’t tellDavid Jolly has taken positions indicating he would take guns in Florida.The sources confirm Jolly's gun positions (an assault weapons ban, universal background checks, licensing, and expanding red flag laws), but none says these positions would take people's guns. Whether they 'indicate he would take guns' is a political characterization, not a checkable fact, and Jolly rejects the portrayal.6 sources →

    ▶ 41:56

  37. 37MixedThe National Organization for Women lists abortion and transgenderism as two of its six core priorities.NOW's six core issues, as listed in 2026 sources, include abortion and reproductive rights and LGBTQ(IA+) rights, so the abortion half is supported and the LGBTQ half is partly supported. The claim's 'transgenderism' is a narrower, contested label than the sources' 'LGBTQ rights', and no source names transgender issues specifically among the six, so the claim leans on a contested reading. The claimant's own passage cannot corroborate the claim.4 sources →

    ▶ 45:09

  38. 38Can’t tellThe 2007 Women's March declared abortion access and trans access as key to its mission.The sources document the platform of the January 2017 Women's March on Washington, which included abortion access and protection for trans women, but none covers a 2007 Women's March, so the claim's 2007 referent is not graded. The claim also departs from the passage's sense that the event was 2007 only if the poster meant the 2017 march; the sources cannot confirm or refute the claim as written.6 sources →

    ▶ 45:20

  39. 39MixedAngie Nixon is a socialist communist.Multiple reliable sources establish that Nixon is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America and is described as a democratic socialist, which supports part of the claim. No source establishes that she is a communist, and she repeatedly denies being either a socialist or a communist, so the 'communist' element is unsupported and contested. The claim is faithful to the post's wording, and the sources are as of the 2026-10-16 posting date, with later coverage (Oct 27-29) showing the same contested picture.9 sources →

    ▶ 46:04

  40. 40Can’t tellIra Jacob passed away from Hurricane Isa.The sources confirm that Hurricane Isaias caused at least four deaths in Florida and Alabama in October 2026, but none names Ira Jacob as a victim, and People reports the victims' identities were not shared publicly. The claim also departs slightly from the passage, which says "Hurricane Isa" (the storm is Isaias) and comes from a viewer's personal message rather than any reporting; the two Ira Jacob-named obituaries found are for different people.6 sources →

    ▶ 51:08

  41. 41TrueSundays for Dogs food recipes contain more than 80% all-natural meat.The brand's own product pages give meat shares of 91% (beef), 86% (turkey), 83% (chicken), and 80% (fish, exactly 80%), which broadly supports the claim that the recipes contain more than 80% meat. The only sources are the company's own ingredient page and sponsored content, with no independent fact-check, so confidence is limited; the fish recipe sits at exactly 80% rather than above it, a minor imprecision. The extracted claim matches the passage, and the 2026-10-16 status is consistent with sources published before and after that date.6 sources →

    ▶ 54:35

  42. 42TrueDr. Tory Waxman is a veterinarian who founded and formulated Sundays for Dogs.Two sources, both company-issued, state that Dr. Tory Waxman is a practicing veterinarian (VMD) who co-founded Sundays for Dogs and serves as its Chief Veterinary Officer, which supports the core of the claim. The sources do not explicitly say she formulated the food, but they describe a vet being involved in every product decision, and the claim's formulation element is not contradicted. Because all sources trace to the company itself, confidence is capped. The claim matches the passage's wording, so no extraction departure applies.2 sources →

    ▶ 54:49

  43. 43TrueDemocrats have held one-party rule in California for 16 years.The claim's core, that Democrats have controlled California's governorship, statewide offices and legislature for about 16 years, is supported by several sources, most directly the LA Times opinion piece saying Democrats have held the governor's desk, every other statewide office and both legislative houses for nearly 16 years. The sources are mostly opinion or unrated, and the legislature has been Democratic for longer, so the 16-year figure refers to combined control rather than the legislature alone.8 sources →

    ▶ 57:30

  44. 44MixedThe California state Supreme Court has a six-one Democrat-appointed majority.The court does have a Democrat-appointed majority, but the claimed six-to-one split does not match the official roster as of October 2026. The court's justices page lists five Democratic-appointed justices, one Republican-appointed justice (Corrigan), and a vacant seat, so the count is 5-1 with a vacancy rather than 6-1. The 6-1 figure matches a 2023 composition that included Justice Jenkins, who is no longer listed.4 sources →

    ▶ 57:48

  45. 45MixedCalifornia has the highest poverty rate in the country, tied with Louisiana.The claim's ranking depends on the poverty measure. Under the official measure, Louisiana (18.1% in 2025) is the highest state and California (about 10.7%, the national rate) is not near the top. Under the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), California was tied with Louisiana in the prior release (17.7%, per CalMatters), but the 2025 SPM data shows Louisiana ahead at 19.0% versus California at 17.8%, making California second. As of the post date (2026-08-10), the prior-release tie partly supports the claim on the SPM measure, but the claim is contradicted on the official measure and by the latest data.6 sources →

    ▶ 58:13

  46. 46TrueChief Executive Magazine ranks California 50th out of 50 states for business climate.Chief Executive's 2026 Best & Worst States for Business ranking, released in April 2026, places California at No. 50, and the magazine's rankings have put California last for years. The claim was accurate as of the 2026-10-16 posting date, and the sources show no later change. The post's wording matches the source's ranking, so the extraction is faithful.6 sources →

    ▶ 58:42

  47. 47MixedCalifornia has the second largest oil reserves in the world.The claim drops the post's qualifier "by some measures." On total proved oil reserves, EIA data show California holds only about 1.3 to 1.5 billion barrels, roughly 3% of the U.S. total and fifth among states, which contradicts a world-second ranking. The second-largest ranking is supported only for heavy oil, where sources say California is second only to Venezuela. As of 2026-10-16, the record supports the heavy-oil reading and contradicts the general reading.8 sources →

    ▶ 1:01:14

  48. 48MixedCalifornia imports nearly 80% of the oil it uses.Sources support that California imports a large majority of its oil, but the 'nearly 80%' figure is higher than the official CEC share of about 61% foreign crude for 2025. Other sources put the share at roughly 60% to 75% depending on the measure (crude intake versus oil consumed), so 80% falls outside the range the record supports. The claim is also drawn from political statements, and the post's 'nearly 80%' was in the claimant's own words, which cannot corroborate it.9 sources →

    ▶ 1:01:24

  49. 49MixedIraq is the top provider of oil to California.The claim that Iraq is California's top oil provider is only partly supported. Iraq was the largest foreign source in 2024 and reportedly ranked highly in early 2026, but the official California Energy Commission 2025 annual data, the most recent full year, puts Brazil first and Iraq second, so the 'right now' framing is contradicted by the primary record as of 2026-10-16. The extraction is faithful to the post, which said 'our top provider right now is Iraq'.6 sources →

    ▶ 1:01:28

  50. 50TrueA poll conducted after the debate between Steve Hilton and Becerra showed Steve Hilton six points behind.A Hilton campaign poll conducted Oct. 1-2, right after the Sept. 30 CNN debate, found Becerra ahead 45.7% to 40.1%, a 5.6-point margin that matches the claim's 'six points behind.' The poll was commissioned by Hilton's campaign and is reported only through campaign-linked coverage, so confidence is capped.5 sources →

    ▶ 1:03:16

  51. 51MixedRudy Giuliani won his re-election as mayor of New York by 18 points.The sources disagree on the margin of Giuliani's 1997 re-election: the Baylor piece gives 18 points, the 1997 New York Times gives 16 points, and a Manhattan Institute article gives 13 points. The claimed 18-point figure matches only one of these, so the record partly supports and partly disputes it, and the claim departs from the passage only in dropping no qualifier.6 sources →

    ▶ 1:04:34

  52. 52Can’t tellSteve Hilton lost his congressional race in Maryland by one point.The passage never names Steve Hilton as the candidate; the speaker says "I ran in a congressional seat" in Maryland, so the claim departs from the passage by attributing that race to Hilton. The sources also contain no record of a Maryland congressional race with a one-point loss by Hilton, and they place Hilton in the California governor race.4 sources →

    ▶ 1:04:51

  53. 53MixedDan Bongino lost his congressional race in Maryland by one point on Election Day.The record supports the intended reading: Bongino lost the 2014 Maryland 6th District race by roughly one to two points (about 1.5 points, or 2,269 votes at the canvass), and the lead flipped to Delaney only after absentee counts. The literal reading, that he lost on Election Day, is not supported, since AP and Daily Record reporting say Delaney led after Tuesday's vote and the claim that Bongino won on Election Day comes only from Bongino's own statements and promotional copy.7 sources →

    ▶ 1:04:51

  54. 54TrueLarry Hogan won two terms as governor of Maryland.Multiple authoritative sources, including the Maryland State Archives and the Maryland Manual, confirm Larry Hogan served as governor from January 2015 to January 2023 after winning elections in 2014 and 2018, which is two terms. The claim matches the passage's meaning, and the sources document that he won a second term in a heavily Democratic state.7 sources →

    ▶ 1:05:01

  55. 55MixedCalifornia has been closing state prisons under the administration of Jerry Brown and Gavin Newsom.The Newsom part holds: sources report he closed several prisons from 2021 on, with five closed under him by late 2026. The Brown part is contradicted: a 2021 source says state prison closures came 'for the first time in nearly two decades,' and another calls the 2021 Newsom closure the first of several, while Brown only tried and failed to close Norco and oversaw population declines rather than closures.7 sources →

    ▶ 1:09:49

  56. 56MixedTens of thousands of dangerous, violent criminals have been released in California in the last few years due to decarceration policies.The sources support that tens of thousands of people were released under California decarceration policies (roughly 30,000 in the first pandemic year per Scientific American, and about 19,000 under CDCR policies per the CA Policy Lab memo), but they contradict the 'dangerous, violent criminals' characterization: the CA Policy Lab and second-look reports describe releases as mostly for non-violent offenses, with very low re-offense rates. The verdict is about 2026-10-16, and the claim's 'last few years' timeframe is loosely matched because many releases date to 2011-2021.5 sources →

    ▶ 1:10:18

  57. 57TrueA proposed California wealth tax includes a retrospective implementation clause that applies to the start of 2026.Multiple sources, including The Atlantic, Thomson Reuters, Tax Foundation, Grant Thornton and NPR, state that Proposition 40's one-time wealth tax uses a January 1, 2026 residency snapshot, so it reaches billionaires who lived in California at the start of 2026 and is retroactive to that date. The claim faithfully reflects the post's point, and the post's mechanism of implementation at year-end is a peripheral detail that does not change the core assertion.5 sources →

    ▶ 1:14:15

  58. 58FalseA trillion dollars of wealth has left California because of the threat of a billionaire tax.No source says a trillion dollars of wealth has left California. The only departure tally in the sources is Telegraph's figure of about $540bn for seven billionaires believed to have left, roughly half the claimed amount, and that is an opinion piece. The claim also departs slightly from the post, which hedged with 'by some estimate', and the sources show departures but not a total dollar figure above $540bn.5 sources →

    ▶ 1:14:39

  59. 59MixedThe California State Auditor published a report showing that $24 billion of spending on homelessness could not be tracked.The California State Auditor's April 2024 report found the state spent about $24 billion on homelessness over five years without consistently tracking spending or outcomes, so the core report and figure are supported. However, 'could not be tracked at all' overstates the findings, since the audit describes incomplete and inconsistent tracking rather than no tracking of the money.7 sources →

    ▶ 1:18:31

  60. 60TrueThe city of Los Angeles faced a lawsuit from downtown business owners regarding $2 billion in homelessness spending.The LA Alliance for Human Rights, a group of downtown business and property owners, sued the city and county over homelessness, and the court-ordered Alvarez & Marsal audit in that case identified about $2.4 billion in city homelessness funding, close to the claimed $2 billion. The figure is an audit of funding within the case rather than a sum the lawsuit itself targeted, so confidence is moderate.5 sources →

    ▶ 1:18:40

  61. 61Can’t tellThe budget of the State of California was $170 billion 10 years ago and is $354 billion in 2026.The sources support a 2026-27 total spending figure of $351.7 billion, close to the claimed $354 billion, but none state California's budget total for 2016-17, so the claimed $170 billion baseline and the 'more than doubled' comparison cannot be checked. The claim matches the post's own wording, so no extraction departure applies.4 sources →

    ▶ 1:19:09

  62. 62MixedA CEO of a non-profit in Los Angeles receives a 1.6 million dollar annual salary and lives in Hawaii.The sources support that the CEO of a Los Angeles-based nonprofit (1736 Family Crisis Center, Carol Adelkoff) lived in Hawaii, but the $1.6 million figure is her total compensation over two years (2023-2024), not an annual salary. Her annual totals were about $908,000 (2023) and $742,000 (2024), and her base salary was about $405,000, so the claimed annual salary is roughly double the annual total and about four times base pay. The claim was made on 2026-10-16, and the sources from August to October 2026 describe the same arrangement as of that date.5 sources →

    ▶ 1:19:58

  63. 63Can’t tellThe FBI conducted a high-profile raid at MacArthur Park in Los Angeles shortly before October 16, 2026.Sources document several federal and LAPD drug raids at MacArthur Park in 2026 (March, June 4, and an undated LAmag item listed on October 13 headlined 'Feds, LAPD Storm MacArthur Park'), and FBI took part in some task-force operations. None clearly confirms an FBI-led raid at the park in the days before October 16, and the October 8 raids were on Skid Row, not MacArthur Park.7 sources →

    ▶ 1:21:20

  64. 64TrueIn 2018, the California state legislature legalized street vendors and prohibited local governments from regulating them based on competition with brick-and-mortar businesses.SB 946, signed September 17, 2018, decriminalized and legalized sidewalk vending statewide and limited local regulation to the bill's terms. Sources quote the statute as saying economic competition is not an objective health, safety, or welfare concern, so local governments cannot restrict vendors on competition grounds. The claim is a narrower, faithful paraphrase of the post, which overstated the point by saying localities could not do anything at all.6 sources →

    ▶ 1:23:26

  65. 65TrueDonald Trump received 6.1 million votes in California in the 2024 presidential election.Official certified results (California Secretary of State Statement of Vote via Reuters, AP, and NYT tables) show Donald Trump received 6,081,697 votes in California in the 2024 presidential election, which rounds to 6.1 million. The claim's 'without campaigning here' framing is opinion-laden rhetoric and not part of the figure being graded, and the post's claim that this was a 'presidential year' with 37% turnout is not what the figure asserts.5 sources →

    ▶ 1:25:12

  66. 66TrueBruce Rauner was elected governor of Illinois.Multiple reliable sources confirm Bruce Rauner was elected governor of Illinois in 2014 (narrowly defeating incumbent Pat Quinn in November 2014) and served as the 42nd governor from January 2015 to January 2019. The claim is a faithful extraction of the passage's reference to Rauner, and the passage's 'Rouner' is a spelling variant of the same person.5 sources →

    ▶ 1:25:59

  67. 67TrueGeorge Pataki was elected governor of New York.Multiple reliable sources, including a 1994 New York Times election report (source 7) and NPR and CNN coverage, confirm that George Pataki was elected governor of New York in 1994, defeating Mario Cuomo, and served three terms. The extraction faithfully reflects the passage's reference to Pataki in New York, and the claim's core assertion is directly supported.4 sources →

    ▶ 1:25:59

  68. 68TrueLarry Hogan was elected governor of Maryland.Multiple sources confirm Larry Hogan was elected governor of Maryland: he won the 2014 election and was sworn in as the 62nd governor on January 21, 2015, then was re-elected in 2018. The claim is a faithful extraction of the passage's reference to Hogan in Maryland, and the sources show he served as governor from 2015 to 2023.4 sources →

    ▶ 1:25:59

  69. 69TrueAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez called Elon Musk one of the most unintelligent billionaires she has ever met or seen.Multiple independent outlets, including The Hill (tier1), report that Ocasio-Cortez said in a February 2025 Instagram Live video that Elon Musk is 'probably one of the most unintelligent billionaires I have ever met or seen or witnessed.' The extracted claim faithfully matches the post's wording, and the post's own 'probably' hedge is only dropped in paraphrase, which doesn't change the substance.8 sources →

    ▶ 12:43

  70. 70TrueThe United States has the lowest murder rate and lowest violent crime rate in 126 years.Sources support the claim's core: the FBI reports 2025 murder at 4.1 per 100,000, tied with 1955 and 1956, and the administration and Council on Criminal Justice say homicides are on pace for the lowest level in at least 126 years. No source disputes the violent-crime level itself, though FactCheck.org disputes the causal framing and the FBI series only begins in 1936, so the 126-year comparison rests on other estimates.6 sources →

    ▶ 35:22

  71. 71FalseThe Democratic Party campaigns on taking away guns, suppressors, and short-barreled rifles.The sources show Democrats campaigning on gun restrictions such as universal background checks, red flag laws, and an assault weapons ban, but none show them campaigning on taking away suppressors or short-barreled rifles. The claim's specific framing of confiscating guns, suppressors, and SBRs is not supported and the platform coverage does not reflect it. The post's 'they openly campaign on it' is a sweeping characterization of the party's platform, not a verified record of a campaign to confiscate these items as of 2026-10-16.8 sources →

    ▶ 39:47

  72. 72TrueTransgender people comprise 1% of the American population.The claim's 1% figure matches the 2026 Williams Institute estimate that 1.0% of Americans aged 13 and older identify as transgender, and the Hill and NBC News also describe about 1%. The figure varies by measure: the same study gives 0.8% of adults, and other surveys range from 0.5% to 1.6%, so it is a rounded estimate rather than a precise count. The extraction faithfully paraphrases the passage, and the sources were checked against the 2026-10-16 posting date.7 sources →

    ▶ 44:52

  73. 73MixedAmericans who attend church or religious services every week are 39% more likely to get married.The direction is well supported: several sources find weekly or frequent churchgoers more likely to be married. The specific 39% figure traces only to one unrated Institute for Family Studies report (via Christian Today), which defines churchgoing as frequent attendance (several times a month or more) rather than every week, and its own denominational ratios differ from 39%. The claim is also not dated to 2026-10-16 in the sources, which were published before and around that date.5 sources →

    ▶ 49:45

  74. 74TrueThe SEIU healthcare union is pushing for a billionaire tax in California.The claim holds as of 2026-10-16. SEIU-United Healthcare Workers West led the petition drive and is the sponsor of the billionaire tax (Proposition 40) in California, and multiple sources show it pushing the measure. The post's 'it' refers to the billionaire tax, and the extraction's wording matches the post's 'SEIU healthcare union'.7 sources →

    ▶ 1:15:18

Sources

Fact-checkers 68Primary records 57Most reliable outlets 9Reliable outlets 38Less reliable outlets 1Unrated 249Rated low 2

  • bongino.comRated low for factual reporting by Iffy.news · the post links to it
  • Rumble (rumble.com)Rated low for factual reporting by Iffy.news and Media Bias/Fact Check · the post links to it
  • The Epoch Times (theepochtimes.com)Rated low for factual reporting by Iffy.news · the post links to it
  • Fox News (foxnews.com)Rated low for factual reporting by Iffy.news · the post links to it
  • Breitbart (breitbart.com)Rated low for factual reporting by Iffy.news · the post links to it
  • democrats.orgRated low for factual reporting by Iffy.news · cited in checking claim 71
  • newsbreak.comRated low for factual reporting by Iffy.news · cited in checking claim 36

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