Polygraph

The average Louisianan received a tax cut of $2,915 due to the working families tax cut bill.

Posted by Speaker Mike Johnson, Checked Updated

Polygraph verdictMixed
Sources
1 contradict1 support6 context
Said
2 times·
Confidence
60%
The Dan Bongino ShowOct 16, 2026
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74 claimsThe check →

The $2,915 figure is close to the roughly $2,900 Louisiana average that the Tax Foundation estimated, and AP ties it to the bill's preserved rates and brackets, so the core is supported.

A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.

A played clip makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… We gave the largest tax cut in U.S. History. We also did the largest spending cut of inefficient, wasteful government spending in history. We have economic indicators across the board. More people are doing better, higher wages. In my state of Louisiana, just with the big beautiful bill, the working families tax cut, the average Louisianian has a tax cut of $2,915. That means that's money in their pocket. They did not have to send it to Washington. Just because we implemented the bill, the average household income went up by almost $5400. …
The Dan Bongino Show · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. AP notes the boost in actual tax refunds was much less, about $350 on average nationwide, so the average 'cut' is a modeled liability reduction rather than an amount received.[1]

Supports. AP reports Louisianans on average saw an estimated $2,900 tax deduction this year, per the nonpartisan Tax Foundation, largely because the bill preserved existing rates and brackets.[1][5]

Context. FactCheck.org reports the OBBBA's estimated average individual tax cut for 2026 was nearly $2,300 per taxpayer (Tax Foundation) or $2,900 (Tax Policy Center), with the average skewed toward upper-income earners.[2][6]

Context. The $2,915 figure appears in Speaker Johnson's own remarks, and the Speaker's office release is a self-interested primary source rather than an independent estimate.[3][7][8]

Context. Treasury's first-year results report average cuts for filers by income band (for example, over $815 for $50k–$100k and over $1,250 for $100k–$200k), which are far below the $2,915 figure.[4]

Sources

8 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 2 primary, 1 tier 2, 3 not rated

  1. 1In GOP Speaker Mike Johnson's district, the political mood is mixed for the party in powerapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts, supports
  2. 2FactChecking Trump’s Midterm Convention Speechfactcheck.org · fact-checker · cited for: context
  3. 3ICYMI: Speaker Johnson Sits for Wide-Ranging Interview in Louisiana with CBS’ Robert Costa - Speaker of the House Mike Johnsonspeaker.gov · primary source · cited for: context
  4. 4A Look at the First-Year Results of the Working Families Tax Cutshome.treasury.gov · primary source · cited for: context
  5. 5In Mike Johnson's district, the political mood is mixed for the GOPpbs.org · tier 2 · cited for: supports
  6. 6$2300 Average Tax Cut in 2026 Under the Big Beautiful Billtaxfoundation.org · not rated · cited for: context
  7. 7Johnson Dances Around Question Comparing Trump's $5K Check Plan to Communism: ‘He's the Ideas President'mediaite.com · not rated · cited for: context
  8. 8Mike Johnson Says Republicans Will Put 'More Money in ...tradingview.com · not rated · cited for: context

Where this claim was made

Said in 2 published posts

Checked 2 times

Each check reads the sources again. The newest verdict is the one this page states.

  1. · latestMixed
  2. True

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