Polymarket showed Lula having a 61% chance of winning the Brazilian election in the first round as of October 4, 2026.
Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked
- Sources
- 5 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 30%
Louder with CrowderOct 5, 2026
None of the provided sources reports Polymarket's first-round odds for Lula on October 4, 2026, so the 61% figure cannot be checked. The sources show Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round and that Polymarket's post-first-round odds favored Bolsonaro, but those figures do not grade the claimed 61% Lula first-place probability.
A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.
What was said
… It looked like there was no hope, and yesterday what we saw, it was a landslide by every possible measure. So just to give you an idea, if you looked at the polls a month ago, they were showing Lula way ahead, probably maybe winning on the first round. If you looked at Polymarket yesterday, yesterday they were showing Lula having 61% chance of ending the first round in first. We had Flavio Bolsonaro winning with other candidates supposedly on the right and ending ahead of Lula. That was completely unexpected. Yeah, completely unexpected. We also had, we also had a landslide in the Senate. …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Context. The settled Polymarket first-round winner market shows Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round with Lula at 0%, but the page does not show the Lula price on October 4 before settlement.[1]
Context. A Polymarket vote-share market for the first round shows traders' consensus on a 44-47% range for Lula's vote share, which is a different market from the probability of finishing first.[2]
Context. Coverage after the first round reports Polymarket giving Bolsonaro over 80% to win the overall election and Lula about 12%, which concerns the runoff outcome rather than first-round placement on October 4.[3][4][5]
Context. The claim's date and scope match the post, which said 'yesterday' in a video posted October 5, so the extraction does not add content beyond the passage.
Sources
5 sources: 5 not rated
- 1Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner | Polymarketpolymarket.us · not rated · cited for: context
- 2Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? ...polymarket.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 3“Prediction” Markets Were Comically Wrong About the ...finance.yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 4"Prediction" Markets Were Comically Wrong About the ...futurism.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 5Lula wins Brazil runoff after prediction markets favored ...cnbc.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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