The odds of Bolsonaro winning the election are 83% according to Kalshi.

Posted by Louder with Crowder, Oct 5, 2026Checked Nov 2, 2026

Polygraph verdictMixed

Sources: 2 support4 context
Said: 1 time·
Confidence: 50%

Louder with CrowderOct 5, 2026

The claim's 83% figure falls within the range Kalshi odds for Bolsonaro reportedly held after the first round (mid-70s to high-80s per The Atlantic), and a Kalshi post on Oct 24 showed 83%, but no source gives Kalshi's exact reading on Oct 5, the claimed date.

A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What we found

Supports. The Atlantic reports that Bolsonaro's odds on Kalshi and Polymarket bounced within the mid-70s and high-80s percent range since the first round, which includes 83%.[2]

Supports. Kalshi Politics posted on Oct 24 that Flávio Bolsonaro had an 83% chance to win, showing the 83% figure appeared on Kalshi, though not on the claimed date.[3]

Context. Kalshi's own market page showed Bolsonaro at 79% on Oct 20, and Kalshi News on Oct 2 described Bolsonaro as favored to win the presidency, so the odds moved within a range over the period.[4][5]

Context. Reuters reports Kalshi priced Bolsonaro above 75% on Friday before the runoff, and CNBC reports Bolsonaro's Kalshi odds were over 80% after the first round, consistent with a high-70s to mid-80s range rather than one fixed number.[1][6]