Polygraph

The Brazilian stock market crashed by 30% after Lula won the election.

Posted by The MeidasTouch Podcast, Checked

Polygraph verdictMixed
Sources
3 contradict6 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
60%
The MeidasTouch PodcastOct 27, 2026
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81 claimsThe check →

The claimed 30% crash matches only the intraday low: Chosun and Financial Express report the Ibovespa at one point down nearly 30%, but the index closed down 13.88% on October 26, 2026, and other reports cite intraday drops of 10% to 17%.

A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.

What was said

… You have to make all of these connections in all of these different areas, and this relates to an international oligarchy. Now, let me tie it to Brazil. What was one of the first things that happened after Lula won? The Brazilian stock market crashed by 30%. Why? Because you have all of the oligarchs punishing Brazil, all of these American MAGA backed in these international Epstein class people punishing the country, pulling their money out, doing a massive sell-off of Brazilian equities to harm and inflict pain …
The MeidasTouch Podcast · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. The Ibovespa closed down 13.88% at 176,608 on October 26, 2026, its largest one-day drop since March 2020, which is well short of a 30% crash measured at the close.[2][3][4]

Supports. Financial Express and Chosun both report the Ibovespa was down nearly or about 30% at one point during the October 26, 2026 session, before recovering.[2][3]

Context. Other reports describe the drop as less severe at the moment measured: Kansas City Star cites a 17% intraday decline, Investopedia says the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell 20%, and Federated Hermes cites a 10% index fall at the open.[5][6][7]

Context. The selloff followed Lula's October 25, 2026 runoff win, and the post's framing that it came 'after Lula won' matches the sources' timeline. The 2022 Reuters and Barron's pieces on Lula's earlier win show a rally, so they do not bear on the 2026 event.[1][8][9]

Sources

9 sources: 1 fact-checker, 8 not rated

  1. 1Brazilian assets rally in volatile session after Lula elected presidentreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
  2. 2Brazil Stock Market Crash Explained: Why Lula’s election win ...financialexpress.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, supports
  3. 3Brazil's Markets Collapse After Lula's Re-election - 조선일보chosun.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, supports
  4. 4Lula’s election win leaves Brazil facing a fiscal tightropecnbc.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  5. 5Brazil markets crater, some stocks sink 50% after Lula's victorykansascity.com · not rated · cited for: context
  6. 6Brazilian Stocks Sink After Surprising Presidential Election Resultinvestopedia.com · not rated · cited for: context
  7. 7Shock Brazil election result unnerves marketsfederatedhermes.com · not rated · cited for: context
  8. 8Brazil Stocks Up After Lula Vote Winbarrons.com · not rated · cited for: context
  9. 9Brazilian stocks, currency head for bruising monthly losses after election upsetbrecorder.com · not rated · cited for: context

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