Donald Trump won Iowa by 15 points in the 2024 election.
Posted by The Benny Show, Checked
- Sources
- 4 contradict3 support1 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 70%
The Benny ShowOct 26, 2026
Trump did win Iowa in 2024, so the direction is right, but the margin was about 13 points, not 15. Official and wire tallies (AP 55.7% to 42.5%) and NBC and electoral-vote data all put it at 13.2 points, outside the record's range.
What was said
… We're not going to believe the polls. We're not going to believe any of the, like, vibe data that told us that Kamala Harris was going to win Iowa by 10 points. Do you remember that? Kamala will win Iowa. Kamala will win Iowa. Iowa ended up going for Trump by 15 points two years ago, but the, the, the biggest pollster in all of, in all of the state, the Seltzer poll in Iowa, said Kamala will win. So this is like vibe polling. It's not real. It's designed to have a determinative effect, and so we're not going to believe it. …
The Benny Show · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. AP's certified results (55.7% vs 42.5%) and NBC's margin analysis both put Trump's 2024 Iowa margin at 13.2 points, not 15.[1][3]
Contradicts. Electoral-vote data reports Trump +13.2 in Iowa in 2024, and Wikipedia describes it as a 13.2-point win, the widest margin for a candidate since 1972.[4][5]
Supports. Trump carried Iowa's six electoral votes in 2024, with AP and other tallies showing him ahead of Kamala Harris.[1][2][6][7]
Context. Politico and NYT tallies (56.0% vs 42.7%) imply a margin of about 13.3 points, so every major source falls around 13 points rather than 15.[6][8]
Sources
8 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 4 tier 2, 2 not rated
- 12024 Iowa Election Results | AP Newsapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts, supports
- 2Iowa election results 2024reuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
- 3Iowa Midterm Elections 2026: Key Races, Candidates ... - NBC Newsnbcnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
- 4Iowa Presidential Election Results, 1960–2024 – Electoral ...electoralvotemap.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 52024 United States presidential election in Iowa - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 6Iowa Presidential Election Results 2024nytimes.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports, context
- 7Iowa Election Results 2024cnn.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 8Iowa Election Results 2024: Live Map - Races by Countypolitico.com · tier 2 · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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