In the 2024 election, pollster Ann Seltzer predicted Kamala Harris would beat Donald Trump by three points in Iowa, but Trump won by 13 points.
Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked
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Louder with CrowderAug 19, 2026
Multiple reliable outlets confirm the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll by J. Ann Selzer showed Harris ahead of Trump by 3 points, and Trump won Iowa by 13 points. The claim's 16-point gap is consistent with those figures, though the extraction omitted the post's explicit '16 points' phrasing, which is a dropped detail rather than an addition.
What was said
… So even if he won a state, let's say i don't remember if it was Wisconsin or Pennsylvania they had him up by like 11, and he won by half a point. Then in 2024, remember that famous pollster, one of the most respected? It was Ann Seltzer, predicting Kamala over Trump by three in Iowa. He won by 13. It was off by 16 points. So we have 2016, 2020, 2024, with a lot of these polls. Okay, at what point do they cease to be of value? So we have been saying this for quite a while. The retort from the left is just, Well, polls aren't an exact science. …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. Reuters reports the Des Moines Register poll published Nov. 2 showed Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points in Iowa, and that Selzer was the pollster.[1]
Supports. Politico reports that according to unofficial results, Trump won Iowa by 13 points, 56 percent to 43 percent, after Selzer's firm found Harris ahead.[3]
Supports. CNN and NPR-affiliated reporting confirm Harris led 47-44 in the final poll and Trump won Iowa by 13 points, describing the result as a 16-point miss.[4][6]
Supports. The New York Times describes Selzer's final Iowa poll as showing Harris ahead 47 to 44 and calls it a badly off-the-mark miss, consistent with the claim.[5]
Context. The AP report of a 2026 judge dismissing Trump's lawsuit against the Register and Selzer does not change the 2024 poll and result facts at issue.[2]
Sources
6 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 3 tier 2, 1 not rated
- 1Trump sues Des Moines Register, vows to pursue more defamation ...reuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
- 2Judge dismisses Trump’s lawsuit against Iowa newspaper | AP Newsapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 3Ann Selzer leaving election polling after Iowa whiff - POLITICOpolitico.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 4Ann Selzer to end election polling after 16-point miss in final Iowa survey | CNN Businesscnn.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 5www.nytimes.com › ann-selzer-iowa-trumpAnn Selzer’s Storied Career Ends With a Big Miss and a Trump ...nytimes.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 6Trump sues 'Des Moines Register' over Iowa Poll that ...iowapublicradio.org · not rated · cited for: supports
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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