The Seltzer poll in Iowa predicted Kamala Harris would win Iowa by 10 points.
Posted by The Benny Show, Checked
- Sources
- 4 contradict2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
The Benny ShowOct 26, 2026
The claim departs from the passage: the post attributes the 10-point Harris lead to unnamed "vibe data", not to the Seltzer poll, which the post says only said "Kamala will win".
What was said
… Do you remember that? Kamala will win Iowa. Kamala will win Iowa. Iowa ended up going for Trump by 15 points two years ago, but the, the, the biggest pollster in all of, in all of the state, the Seltzer poll in Iowa, said Kamala will win. So this is like vibe polling. It's not real. It's designed to have a determinative effect, and so we're not going to believe it. …
The Benny Show · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. The Seltzer/Des Moines Register poll showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%, a 3-point lead, not a 10-point lead.[1][4][5][6]
Context. The Iowa 10-point figure in the sources belongs to an Emerson poll that showed Trump ahead by 10 points, not to the Seltzer poll.[5]
Context. The passage ties the 10-point Harris figure to "vibe data" in general and attributes only the statement "Kamala will win" to the Seltzer poll, so the claim adds a figure and attribution the post does not make.
Context. A federal-style court ruling dismissed Trump's lawsuit over the poll, holding that poll predictions are protected speech; this does not bear on the poll's figure.[2][3]
Sources
6 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 1 primary, 1 tier 2, 2 not rated
- 1Iowa judge dismisses Trump's lawsuit against Des Moines Register and pollsterapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts
- 2Judge dismisses Trump lawsuit against Iowa newspaper ...reuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 3Trump v. Selzer et al (Iowa District Court for Polk County, 2026)firstamendment.mtsu.edu · primary source · cited for: context
- 4What That Surprising Iowa Poll Might Be Telling Usnytimes.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
- 5New Iowa poll shows Harris ahead by 3 points in ...fox9.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, context
- 6In surprise, Harris has slight lead over Trump in Iowa pollbostonglobe.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
Related claims
- In the 2024 election, pollster Ann Seltzer predicted Kamala Harris would beat Donald Trump by three points in Iowa, but Trump won by 13 points.True
- Donald Trump won Iowa by 15 points in the 2024 election.Mixed
- In the 2020 election, polling overestimated Joe Biden's popularity by the worst margin of any polling in 40 years.True
- Kamala Harris received fewer votes in the 2024 election than the winner of the 2026 midterm races will receive.Can’t tell
- In the 2024 major races, Republicans outperformed their September polls by 9 points in Iowa, 6 points in Ohio, and 5 points in Michigan.Can’t tell