Kalshi odds show Democrats have a 65% chance to take back the Senate.
Posted by Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov, Checked
- Sources
- 1 contradict1 support2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 50%
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica TarlovOct 27, 2026
… Trump is suing states over election rules, threatening election officials and offering $1 million for tipoffs that lead to voter fraud convictions. Despite these efforts, Kalshi odds show Democrats have a 65% chance to take back the Senate. But with seven toss-ups projected, both parties are relying on voter turnout. Will Democratic efforts be enough to deliver the “blue wave” many have predicted? …
As of 2026-10-27, the sources show Kalshi odds favoring Democrats but do not report a Senate-only figure of 65%. CNBC reported 63% for Democrats winning both chambers that day, and Kalshi's Senate market showed 68% two days later (Oct 29), so 65% falls inside a range of nearby readings that measure different things.
Minor detail. The sources confirm the claim; only a minor detail differs, such as a name's spelling, a title's wording or a rounding.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What we found
Contradicts. No source reports exactly 65% for Democrats taking the Senate on or near Oct 27; the closest same-day figure (63%) measures both chambers, not the Senate alone.[1]
Supports. CNBC (Oct 27) reported Kalshi gave Democrats a 63% chance of winning control of both the House and Senate, and described Democrats as roughly two-to-one favorites.[1]
Supports. Kalshi's Senate control market showed Democrats at 68% on Oct 29, close to the claimed 65%.[2]
Context. Later Kalshi readings rose to about 70% (Oct 31) and 71% (Nov 1), showing the Senate figure moved upward after the claim was posted.[3][4]
Sources
4 sources: 4 not rated
- 12026 midterms: Prediction markets favor Democratic ...cnbc.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, supports
- 2Which party will win the U.S. Senate? 2026 Senate Control ...kalshi.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 3Prediction markets missed Brazil. U.S. midterms are the big test.yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 42026 Midterm Predictions: Polls vs. Prediction Marketsnews.kalshi.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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