The independent vote in the 2026 Texas election is tracking at the same level as it was in 2018.
Posted by Bannon`s War Room, Checked
- Sources
- 9 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 30%
Bannon`s War RoomOct 28, 2026
No source reports independent-voter turnout in the 2026 Texas early vote compared with 2018, so the claim cannot be graded. Sources show overall early turnout slightly behind 2018 as of Oct 27 and then surpassing 2018 by Nov 1, and analysts say Republicans need independents, but none states that independent turnout is tracking at 2018 levels.
A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… What we're seeing is they are, they are dropping off pretty substantially, and what they're relying on is they're relying on independents to show up, but we just haven't seen that uptick. In fact, the independent vote is tracking right around the same as 2018. Uhm, and I don't expect them to, to really, you know, come in heavier because, as, as early voting ends, we actually see less independents showing up and more Republicans that start to show up. …
Bannon`s War Room · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Context. Houston Public Media (Oct 27) reports overall early-vote turnout slightly behind 2018 through the first seven days, with no independent-specific breakdown.[3]
Context. Texas Tribune and other outlets (Oct 31 to Nov 2) report a record 7.4 to 7.7 million early voters surpassing 2018's turnout rate, but these figures are not broken down by independents.[4][5][6][7]
Context. Axios (Oct 31) reports in-person early turnout exceeded 2018 levels in four of Texas's five largest counties, again without independent-voter data.[8]
Context. The Washington Post (Nov 1) says analysts extrapolate party affiliation from primary participation and that Republicans must rely more on independents, but it gives no 2018 comparison of independent turnout.[2]
Context. Texas 2036's poll (Sept) and UT/Texas Politics poll (Oct) describe unaffiliated voters' attitudes and share of the electorate, not early-vote turnout tracking against 2018.[1][9]
Sources
9 sources: 1 primary, 1 tier 2, 7 not rated
- 1Latest UT/Texas Politics Poll Finds Historic Levels of Competition in ...texaspolitics.utexas.edu · primary source · cited for: context
- 2In a hole, Texas GOP needs extra help from independent ...washingtonpost.com · tier 2 · cited for: context
- 3Texas early voting rate is slightly behind 2018, when Beto O ...houstonpublicmedia.org · not rated · cited for: context
- 4More than 7.7 million Texans voted early in 2026 election, surpassing 2018 recordkrgv.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 5More than 7.7 million Texans voted early in 2026 election ...click2houston.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 6Early vote in 2026 election surpasses 2018 recordtexastribune.org · not rated · cited for: context
- 7More than 7.4 million Texans voted early in 2026 election ...kwtx.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 8Texans surge to polls during early voting - Axiosaxios.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 910th Texas Voter Polltexas2036.org · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
Related claims
- Total voter turnout in Texas is currently tracking with 2018 levels.True
- In Texas, 4.5 million ballots have been cast compared to 3 million at this point in 2022.True
- Republican primary voters are currently outpacing Democrat primary voters in Texas.False
- The Democrat in the current Texas Senate race is polling nine points better than the Democrat in the 2018 Senate race at the same point in the cycle.Mixed
- In the 2018 Texas election, 8% of the Republican base shifted their vote to Beto O'Rourke.Mixed