In the 2018 Texas election, 8% of the Republican base shifted their vote to Beto O'Rourke.
Posted by Bannon`s War Room, Checked
- Sources
- 1 contradict1 support2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 45%
Bannon`s War RoomOct 28, 2026
The claim's 8% figure is close to, but not the same measure as, the sources' numbers. AP VoteCast exit polling put O'Rourke's share of Republican voters at about 6%, while a Texas Politics analysis reports that no more than 8% of Republicans held a favorable view of O'Rourke in any 2018 poll.
A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.
A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.
What was said
… Those are the, the, the primary voters you can always count on. Um, but he's right: we are going to need a showing from those lower propensity Republicans, uh, because right now what we have to worry about is how much of a crossover there is. Right, in 2018, we saw about 8% of the Republican base shift over to Beto. Now, in order for that to work for Tallarico, he's going to need to see about 11% shift. So Paxton does have a bit of a gap there, but not much. …
Bannon`s War Room · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. A Texas Politics analysis reports that no more than 8% of Republicans had a favorable impression of O'Rourke in 2018 polls, a favorability measure rather than a vote shift, so it does not confirm the 8% vote-shift figure.[1]
Supports. The 2018 AP VoteCast exit poll shows O'Rourke received 6% of Republican voters, roughly in line with the claimed 8% figure.[2]
Context. Sources on the 2018 result (Cruz 50.9%, O'Rourke 48.3%) confirm the race but do not state any share of the Republican base that shifted to O'Rourke.[3][4]
Sources
4 sources: 1 primary, 2 tier 2, 1 not rated
- 1What the 2018 election in Texas can and can't tell us about 2026texaspolitics.utexas.edu · primary source · cited for: contradicts
- 2Texas 2018 voter poll results - Washington Postwashingtonpost.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 3Texas Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County ...politico.com · tier 2 · cited for: context
- 4Here's how Texas voted in every U.S. Senate election since ...texastribune.org · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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