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Nicolle Wallace, MS NOW
Drawing on years of experience as communications chief for President George W. Bush and senior advisor for the McCain-Palin campaign, Nicolle Wallace provides political insight and clarity on where the decision-makers stand on complex issues. Join her for analysis and discussion with the key newsmakers every weekday.
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False65% confidence7 sourcesSep 7, 2026The current approval rating for the war is less than 20%.Said by AThe claim that current approval of the war is below 20% is contradicted by every poll in the sources, which put approval of Trump's handling of the Iran war at roughly 26-35% in the months around 2026-09-07. The claimant's passage hedges with 'I think', and the sources give no figure near 20%.False60% confidence7 sourcesSep 7, 2026The current conflict in the Middle East is taking place in a territory two and a half times the size of Iraq.Said by BThe post's 'this place' refers to Iran, and the 2.5x-Iraq figure is contradicted by multiple sources that put Iran at roughly 3.8 times Iraq's area (about 1.65 million km² vs 438,000 km²). The claim also treats the conflict's territory as Iran, while NYT describes the war's reach as more than four million square miles, so the extraction is not a clean match to the post.False60% confidence4 sourcesSep 7, 2026Americans began casting their ballots on September 4, 2026.The claim that Americans began casting ballots on September 4, 2026 is contradicted by sources saying the earliest in-person early voting opened September 18 in Idaho, Minnesota, South Dakota and Virginia, with Vermont and Illinois following later. The post's September 4 event was North Carolina beginning to mail absentee ballots, which is not casting ballots, and the sources do not address whether any voters returned ballots before September 18.Mixed60% confidence7 sourcesSep 7, 202618 U.S. service members have been killed in the conflict with Iran.Said by 3DThe figure of 18 matches the official Pentagon DCAS count reported in September 2026 (CRS, as of Sept 15; ABC citing DoD data), so it was accurate as an official tally when posted. However, the Washington Post reported at least 22 deaths citing officials, and the Pentagon later revised its count upward to 21 and then 23, including deaths that predated the 18 figure, so the 18 undercounted the total connected to the war.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.Mixed60% confidence6 sourcesSep 7, 2026The Trump administration previously stated that election fraud does not exist.Said by AThe sources support the narrower reading that Trump's own administration (CISA and Attorney General Barr in 2020) stated there was no widespread or outcome-changing fraud, so the claim holds if read as 'widespread fraud does not exist.' The literal reading, that election fraud of any kind does not exist, is contradicted by the official federal line that isolated election crimes did occur and were prosecuted. The extraction matches the post's wording, so the verdict grades the post's own claim.Mixed45% confidence5 sourcesSep 7, 2026Donald Trump's approval rating is approximately 30%.Said by BThe claim's direction is right, since sources show Trump's approval falling into the low 30s, but the sources do not measure approval on the claim's 2026-09-07 date. Polls near that period range from about 29% (American Research Group, Sept 16-20) to 35% (Reuters/Ipsos, the week before Sept 21), and averages were about 35% (FiftyPlusOne, Sept 25) to 39% (RealClearPolitics). The claimed 30% sits at the low end of that range, and the 30% Pew reading (fielded Sept 28-Oct 4) came after the claim date. The extraction faithfully reflects the post's 'just about 30%' wording.Minor detail. The sources confirm the claim; only a minor detail differs, such as a name's spelling, a title's wording or a rounding.Mixed60% confidence9 sourcesSep 7, 2026The United States has suffered 18 deaths and hundreds of wounded in the current conflict in the Middle East.Said by BThe official Pentagon DCAS count, as reported by sources near the September 7 posting date, matches the claim's 18 deaths and hundreds wounded (808 to over 830). However, Washington Post reporting from September 18 cites officials saying at least 22 (possibly 23) service members died, so the true toll depends on whether one uses the public database or internal accounting. The claim also departs from the passage only in dropping the 'small potatoes' framing, which is a faithful paraphrase, so it is graded normally.Mixed60% confidence11 sourcesSep 7, 2026The current conflict in the Middle East involves a country with more than 90 million people.Said by BThe sources place Iran at the center of the ongoing war, and several tier-1 and other sources put its population above 90 million (Reuters, Responsible Statecraft, AP's 'some 90 million', and UN-based estimates near 93 million). However, Iranian official statistics reported by IranWire put the population at about 87 million, and some estimates sit near 89.9 million, so the figure depends on which estimate is used. The claim's wording is not in dispute, but the population figure is contested within the sources, and the claim departs from the passage only in its precise 'more than 90 million' wording, which the post does state.Mixed60% confidence7 sourcesSep 7, 2026A judge previously dismissed the case against David Hearn.Said by AA judge did dismiss the case against David Hearn, but not until October 1, 2026, after the September 7 post. Before that, prosecutors (Pirro) dropped the case on July 31, and the post itself says a judge had not yet ruled, so the word "previously" is contradicted by the sources' timeline.True80% confidence5 sourcesSep 7, 2026The Department of Homeland Security is investigating non-citizens on voter rolls across nine states.Said by AMultiple sources confirm that DHS ran an election-related noncitizen investigation covering nine states (California, Connecticut, Georgia, Missouri, Nevada, New York, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin), and PBS says it had been underway since August, before the September 7 post. The claim does not depend on the later October court order, which restricted but did not end the operation; the extraction faithfully reflects the post's 'nine states' wording.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.True90% confidence5 sourcesSep 7, 2026North Carolina started sending out absentee ballots on September 4, 2026.Said by ANorth Carolina's county boards of elections began mailing absentee ballots on Friday, September 4, 2026, as shown by the state elections board and county election pages. The post's 'today' refers to that Friday, which the post's own '60 days until the midterms' framing corroborates, so the extraction matches the passage.True85% confidence5 sourcesSep 7, 2026Alabama will start mailing out absentee ballots on September 9, 2026.Said by AThe claim that Alabama would start mailing absentee ballots on September 9, 2026 is supported. The AP reported that Alabama would kick off its mail ballot process on Sept. 9, and the Alabama Secretary of State announced that absentee voting began that day. The extraction faithfully reflects the post, and the date follows from 'next Wednesday' given the post date of Sept. 7. The one nuance is that the state frames the start as 'absentee voting' rather than 'mailing,' but Alabama is an application-based absentee state, so this is a minor wording difference.