Polygraph

In 2010, the Russian birth rate was at least 50% higher than it had been in the past.

Posted by The Pete Quiñones Show, Checked

Polygraph verdictMixed
Sources
3 contradict2 support1 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
55%
The Pete Quiñones ShowOct 1, 2026
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521 claimsThe check →

The sources show Russia's birth rate rose sharply by 2010, but whether it was at least 50% higher depends on the baseline and the measure.

A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.

What was said

… Gold reserves, uhm, everything else, and this means that life expectancy, it was under 50 at one point. In 2010, the birth rate was at least 50% higher than it had been in the past, and that's really just the beginning. Every economic indicator, inflation was brought under control, the ruble was properly functioning. …
The Pete Quiñones Show · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. On the total fertility rate measure, the rise from 1.16 in 1999 to about 1.6 in 2010 is roughly 35–38%, below 50%, and from 1.31 in 2006 to 1.57 it is about 20%.[3][4][5]

Supports. Births rose from 1.21 million in 1999 to about 1.79 million in 2010, roughly a 48% increase, and the 1999 total fertility rate was a record low of 1.16.[1][3][6]

Supports. Crude birth rate increased from 8.7% in 2000 to 12.6% in 2010, about a 45% rise, which is close to the 50% threshold.[6]

Context. Medvedev in 2010 said the birth rate had begun to rise for the first time in decades, citing a 1.5% quarterly increase, which does not quantify a multi-year rise.[2]

Sources

6 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 4 not rated

  1. 1Russia's population is getting smaller and older. Putin ... - AP Newsapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
  2. 2Russia says 20-year population fall may be turningreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
  3. 3war and migration of Russian youth set to cause demographic ...theins.press · not rated · cited for: contradicts, supports
  4. 4russian federation aging project family policies in russiaopenknowledge.worldbank.org · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  5. 5Demographics of Russia - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  6. 6[PDF] Patterns of Birth Rate and Russian Female Reproductive Behavior ...esc.volnc.ru · not rated · cited for: supports

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