Polygraph

There are 30 to 40 million illegal aliens in the United States.

Posted by The Kuhner Report, Checked

Polygraph verdictFalse
Sources
4 contradict3 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
65%
The Kuhner ReportOct 26, 2026
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40 claimsThe check →

As of 2026-10-26, the sources' current estimates put the illegal alien population far below 30 to 40 million: about 13.5 million (CIS, July 2026), 15.8 million (MPI, mid-2024), and 18.6 million (FAIR, March 2025), with PolitiFact noting that the highest research estimate it found was 16.8 million.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… We're a country full of invaders. Biden brought in at least 15 to 20 million, on top of the 15 to 20 million that already existed. So we've got 30 to 40 million illegal aliens in our country. As you said, cost of living, affordability, they're bleeding us white, they're driving rents through the roof, they're driving inflation through the roof, they're draining our treasury, they're draining our taxpayer dollars. …
The Kuhner Report · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. PolitiFact rates the claim that 25 million people entered via the southern border as False, saying immigration researchers' estimates of the illegal population during Biden's tenure ranged from 11 to 12 million, with a highest estimate of 16.8 million.[1]

Contradicts. The Center for Immigration Studies estimated 13.5 million illegal aliens in July 2026, and its experts argue that much higher estimates, such as 30 million, cannot be correct.[6]

Contradicts. Independent estimates place the population at 15.8 million (MPI, mid-2024) and 18.6 million (FAIR, March 2025), both well below the claimed 30 to 40 million.[2][7]

Context. A House letter cites an estimated 11 to 22 million illegal aliens before the Biden-era border crisis plus at least 10 million who entered under Biden, a sum that could approach 30 million but is built from older, unreconciled figures rather than a current count.[3]

Context. The White House and DHS claim the population has fallen by at least 2.3 million (over 3 million departures), which would further reduce any current figure from the Biden-era peak.[4][5]

Sources

7 sources: 1 fact-checker, 4 primary, 2 not rated

  1. 1Trump's midterm rallies: A fact-checked guide to talking ...politifact.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts
  2. 2How Many Illegal Aliens Are in the United States? 2025 ...congress.gov · primary source · cited for: contradicts
  3. 3October 26, 2026 The Honorable Markwayne Mullin Secretary ...roy.house.gov · primary source · cited for: context
  4. 4How President Trump Ended the Border Invasion and ...whitehouse.gov · primary source · cited for: context
  5. 5DHS Sets the Stage for Another Historic, Record-Breaking ...dhs.gov · primary source · cited for: context
  6. 6How Many Illegal Aliens Are There?music.amazon.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  7. 7Biden border crisis caused illegal immigrant population to peakwashingtonexaminer.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts

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