Polygraph

The kratom industry in the United States is a $3 billion industry.

Posted by The Joe Rogan Experience, Checked

Polygraph verdictFalse
Sources
5 contradict3 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
60%
The Joe Rogan ExperienceNov 6, 2026
View on Podcast ↗
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149 claimsThe check →

No source gives a US kratom industry value near $3 billion. The US estimates in the sources run about $1.3 to $1.5 billion (2020 to 2021), roughly half the claimed figure, and the 2025 figure of $2.56 billion is global, not US.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… It's an opioid, just straight up. It's a straight up opioid. Okay, it's very it's called gas station heroin. It is an opioid, period. It is a legal gray zone, and I don't think many people know about this, but this is a, like, $3 billion industry. No, this is massive, billions of dollars, just in the United States, or that's my understanding. This is rampant right now in America. Many people probably do know about this, but this is an opioid, and it comes from a leaf. …
The Joe Rogan Experience · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. A 2020 industry estimate puts US kratom sales at $1.5 billion, with the sector's value at about $1.3 billion in 2019, both well below $3 billion.[1]

Contradicts. The American Kratom Association's 2021 estimate, repeated in a 2024 Bloomberg-cited figure, put the US market at about $1.3 billion, roughly half the claimed $3 billion.[2][3]

Contradicts. The 2025 global kratom market was $2.56 billion, a worldwide total that is still below $3 billion, so even the broadest recent figure does not support a $3 billion US industry.[4][5]

Context. A 2024 market report valued the kratom market at $2.19 billion, and a 2025 report put the 2024 market at $1.13 billion, showing that estimates vary widely by source and scope but none reaches $3 billion for the US.[6][7]

Context. The Week describes kratom as a 'billion-dollar industry' without a specific US figure, and no source located states a 2026 US value.[8]

Sources

8 sources: 8 not rated

  1. 1[PDF] Kratom Impact Report US and Indonesia 2023.pdf - Squarespacestatic1.squarespace.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  2. 2CLASS ACTION COMPLAINT – JURY TRIAL DEMANDEDinteractive.cbs8.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  3. 3Opinion: Politics aside, kratom needs to be regulatedsltrib.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  4. 4Kratom Market- Industry Analysis and Forecast (2025-2032)maximizemarketresearch.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  5. 528 Kratom Ecommerce Trends Shaping the Market - Swellswell.is · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  6. 61search-prod.lis.state.oh.us · not rated · cited for: context
  7. 7Kratom Market Regional...emergenresearch.com · not rated · cited for: context
  8. 8Kratom: a dangerous hightheweek.com · not rated · cited for: context

Where this claim was made

Said in 1 published post

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