Polygraph

The Hispanic vote share in early voting is 35% higher in Texas, 44% in California, 15% in Arizona, 25% in New Mexico, 35% in Colorado, 51% in Illinois, 84% in Virginia, 70% in New York, 45% in Nevada, 59% in New Jersey, and 58% in Georgia.

Posted by The DSR Network, Checked

Polygraph verdictTrue
Sources
2 support2 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
60%
The DSR NetworkOct 27, 2026
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The Washington Post, citing TargetSmart data as of Tuesday October 27, reports Texas +37%, California +44%, New York +71%, and Virginia +86% in the Hispanic share of early votes, which closely matches the claim's 35%, 44%, 70%, and 84% within a point or two.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What we found

Supports. WaPo, citing TargetSmart data as of Tuesday, reports Hispanic early-vote share increases of 37% in Texas, 44% in California, 71% in New York, and 86% in Virginia, consistent with the claim's 35%, 44%, 70%, and 84% within rounding.[1]

Supports. Tom Bonier's analysis, quoted by Fifty Plus One, reports the Hispanic share of the early vote is larger than in 2022 in 96% of counties and in every state that has begun voting, supporting the broad direction of the claim.[2]

Context. An NBC report cited by Politicalwire measures Texas Hispanic early voter counts, up 87.2% (about 881,000 more voters), which is a count rather than share and so does not directly test the claimed Texas share figure.[3]

Context. The Texas Tribune reports Hispanic voters were 18% of Texas early voters as of Sunday, 2 points above 2022, a level measure that does not address the percentage-increase figures in the claim.[4]

Context. The TargetSmart data is from a Democratic data firm, and the broader 96% county figure traces back to the same analyst, so the figures are not fully independent of one another.[1][2]

Sources

4 sources: 1 tier 2, 3 not rated

  1. 1More than 39 million Americans have voted early, including ...washingtonpost.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports, context
  2. 2How different demographic groups have shifted this cycleblog.fiftyplusone.news · not rated · cited for: supports, context
  3. 3Early Vote Shows Hispanic Turnout Exploding in Texaspoliticalwire.com · not rated · cited for: context
  4. 4In first week of early voting, 4.5 million Texans cast a ballottexastribune.org · not rated · cited for: context

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