Polygraph

Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 Brazilian presidential election by 1.8 percentage points.

Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked

Polygraph verdictTrue
Sources
7 support1 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
90%
Louder with CrowderOct 5, 2026
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50 claimsThe check →

Multiple tier1 and unrated sources confirm that in the 2022 runoff Lula won 50.9% to Bolsonaro's 49.1%, a margin of 1.8 percentage points (about 2.1 million votes). The claim's extraction matches the post's own wording, and the 'supposedly' hedge does not change the core figure.

What was said

… And that was a reason for what happened in Brazil? Because a lot of people are making that connection. N g o s u s aid 100% 100%. Bolsonaro lost 20, and we can talk about how clean is the election in Brazil in a minute. Bolsonaro supposedly lost election by 1.8 points in 2022, okay? And with the but the whole right was being censored because USAID was funding initiatives, NGOs, and even the court in Brazil, court initiatives to censor conservatives that were promoting quote unquote misinformation or disinformation or hate speech or …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Supports. AP reports Lula defeated Bolsonaro with 50.9% to 49.1% in the 2022 runoff, with about 2 million votes separating them.[1]

Supports. Multiple outlets report the 2022 runoff result as 50.9% to 49.1%, a 1.8-point margin, and a Journal of Democracy piece states Bolsonaro lost by 1.8 points in 2022.[3][4][5][6][7]

Supports. A 2026 analysis reports the second-round final result as 50.90% against 49.10%, a distance equivalent to 1.80 points.[8]

Context. PolitiFact's 2023 ruling concerns Tucker Carlson's rigging claim and notes Lula defeated Bolsonaro by about 2%, consistent with the 1.8-point margin.[2]

Sources

8 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 6 not rated

  1. 12022 Brazil election live updates: Lula defeats Bolsonaro ...apnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
  2. 2Tucker Carlson's unfounded claim that Brazil's election ...politifact.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
  3. 3Brazil's Bolsonaro avoids conceding defeat, but begins transition to ...kunm.org · not rated · cited for: supports
  4. 4Brazil election results 2022: Lula da Silva defeats Bolsonaronationalworld.com · not rated · cited for: supports
  5. 5Brazil's elections are over but the fight is just beginning: Analysisabcnews.com · not rated · cited for: supports
  6. 6Why Latin America's Losers Won't Concedejournalofdemocracy.org · not rated · cited for: supports
  7. 7Brazil protests grow as Bolsonaro remains silent on election losslemonde.fr · not rated · cited for: supports
  8. 8Elections in Brazil: Lula outpaced Bolsonaro by six million votes in 2022 and ended up winning by two.democrata.es · not rated · cited for: supports

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Said in 1 published post

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