There are approximately 500,000 high-propensity Republican voters in Texas who have not yet voted.
Posted by Bannon`s War Room, Checked
- Sources
- 1 contradict2 support3 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 45%
Bannon`s War RoomOct 28, 2026
The sources give competing estimates of high-propensity Republicans who had not yet voted, and the claimed 500,000 falls between them: Ryan's count of 318,000 Republicans who voted in all four prior GOP primaries (through Oct. 23) and Patrick's roughly 600,000 (Oct. 25).
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… Um, I would need to look at that data, but that's about right. Uh, there's a lot of Republicans that still have yet to vote. Now, a lot of those are low propensity Republicans, so it's not like, you know, the high propensity ones are sitting out. In terms of high propensity voters, we're, we're still looking at about a half million that are still left. Those are the, the, the primary voters you can always count on. Um, but he's right: we are going to need a showing from those lower propensity Republicans, uh, because right now what we have to worry about is how much of a crossover there is. …
Bannon`s War Room · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. Ryan's analysis through Oct. 23 found 318,000 people who voted in all four previous Republican primaries had not yet voted, well below 500,000 and a narrower group than the claim's 'high-propensity' framing.[1]
Supports. Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said on Oct. 25 that about 600,000 high-propensity voters had not yet shown up, a figure in the same range as the claim's 500,000.[2][3]
Context. Ryan said 2 million reliable Republican primary voters had not yet voted, a much broader definition than the high-propensity count the claim uses.[4]
Context. Texas does not register voters by party, so all Republican-voter counts are estimates built from past primary participation, and Ryan's Texas Monthly figure gives only a net difference of 245,000 against Democrats, not an absolute count.[5][6]
Sources
6 sources: 5 not rated, 1 tier 2
- 1Texas on Track for Record Midterm Voter Turnout, Democrats ...thetexan.news · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 2Lt. Governor Dan Patrick expects Texas Republicans to surpass ...cbsnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 3Final week of early voting begins as record-breaking numbers highlight week oneabc13.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 4Record Texas turnout possible as early voting points to a ...nbcdfw.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 5Dems Are Finally Admitting Texas Is a Red State. It's Why They Might Actually Win.texasmonthly.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 6In first week of early voting, 4.5 million Texans cast a ballottexastribune.org · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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