Marine Le Pen is polling with a 7 to 30 advantage over Jean-Luc Melenchon.

Posted by Ask Dr. Drew, Oct 21, 2026Checked Nov 2, 2026

Polygraph verdictTrue

Sources: 6 support3 context
Said: 1 time·
Confidence: 60%

Ask Dr. DrewOct 21, 2026

Polls from before 2026-10-21 put Le Pen roughly 13 to 20 points ahead of Mélenchon (for example 33% vs 18.5–19.5% in Cluster17, 35–37% vs about 17% in Toluna Harris, and 37–38% vs 18–18.5% in Odoxa), which falls within the claimed 7-to-30 range.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… Too many Muslims coming in, thinking that they're going to have their own cities and municipalities govern themselves, anti-constitutional cities." So that's America's biggest fear, and I believe they're spot on with that fear. Yeah, uh, the, the i mean, Marine Le Pen is now showing a seven to 30 advantage over Melanchon, who's a avowed communist. Uh, they may have done them a favor. They may have done the midterms a favor here. Uh, but I understand you're quoted as having said that after the midterms, it's going to get very dark. What did you mean by that? …

Ask Dr. Drew · Oct 21, 2026· from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Supports. A Cluster17 poll for Politico published October 26 (fieldwork October 19–20) put Le Pen at 33% and Mélenchon at 18.5–19.5%, a lead of about 13.5 to 14.5 points.[2][3]

Supports. A Toluna Harris Interactive poll reported Le Pen at 35–37% against Mélenchon at about 17–18%, a lead of roughly 17 to 19 points, with fieldwork October 5–8.[4][5]

Supports. A Le Parisien poll reported in the Irish Independent on October 26 gave Le Pen an average of 33% and Mélenchon 17%, a lead of about 16 points.[6]

Supports. An Odoxa poll reported October 14 showed Le Pen at 37–38% and Mélenchon at 18–18.5%, a lead of about 19 to 20 points.[7]

Context. The Reuters report of October 30 says Le Pen is nearly certain to reach the runoff and Mélenchon is consistently ahead of mainstream candidates, without giving a head-to-head lead figure.[1][8]

Context. Polls published after October 21 (such as the Connexion poll for October 21–22 showing Le Pen at 32–33.5% vs Mélenchon at 17%) show a similar lead of about 15 to 16 points, so the picture did not change materially after the claim was made.[9]

Sources

9 sources: 1 fact-checker, 8 not rated

1French centrists' feuding increases odds of Le Pen-Melenchon runoffreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
2Le Pen widens poll lead as Mélenchon closes in on run-off ...rfi.fr · not rated · cited for: supports
3Cluster17: Le Pen at 33%, Mélenchon at 18.5% to 19.5% overtakes ...plataformamedia.com · not rated · cited for: supports
4Le Pen, Melenchon Head for Run-Off as France's Political Divide ...usnews.com · not rated · cited for: supports
5Right Leader Le Pen and Hard-Left Mélenchon Positioned for ...ground.news · not rated · cited for: supports
6French protests hand far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon an election boost but Marine Le Pen still way aheadindependent.ie · not rated · cited for: supports
7Le Pen & Melenchon Gain Momentum Ahead of French 2027 Election, Poll Showschronicle.lu · not rated · cited for: supports
8French centrists' feuding increases odds of Le Pen- ...straitstimes.com · not rated · cited for: context
9France 2027 election poll: Le Pen and Mélenchon set for final roundconnexionfrance.com · not rated · cited for: context

Where this claim was made

Said in 1 published post

Ask Dr. Drew · Oct 21, 2026Post →

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