Polygraph

A margin of 400 votes would have decided a Washington commissioner of public lands election.

Posted by unDivided with Brandi Kruse, Checked

Polygraph verdictTrue
Sources
4 support1 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
60%
unDivided with Brandi KruseOct 27, 2026
View on Podcast ↗
Video frame
57 claimsThe check →

The 2024 Washington Commissioner of Public Lands primary was decided by a margin of about 51 votes (the recount found 49), so a 400-vote margin would have been decisive in that contest. No source addresses the hypothetical 400-vote figure directly, and the 'Washington' referent is resolved from the post's mention of Washington State.

What was said

… You know, 400 votes, I know you've lived in Washington State, 400 votes would have decided a gubernatorial election in 2004. 400 votes would have decided a commissioner of public lands election. I think we're gonna have races for State Supreme Court justices that could be within 400 votes. So now, a week from the election, you've notified the State of Washington of this list of names. What if they let them vote anyway? …
unDivided with Brandi Kruse · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Supports. The official Secretary of State recount record shows Upthegrove and Pederson separated by 51 votes in the August 2024 primary, meaning any margin up to 400 votes would have decided which candidate advanced.[2]

Supports. The August 6, 2024 primary results show Upthegrove at 396,300 and Pederson at 396,249, a gap of 51 votes that determined the second top-two slot.[3]

Supports. Reporting on the close race says the margin was only 51 votes, and Wikipedia reports that after recount Upthegrove led by 49 votes and advanced to the general election.[4][5]

Context. The 2020 lands commissioner race was won comfortably by the Democratic incumbent, so it provides no close-margin example.[1]

Sources

5 sources: 1 fact-checker, 2 primary, 2 not rated

  1. 1Republicans lose one of two statewide elected officesapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
  2. 22024 Primary Election - Washington Secretary of State - WA.govsos.wa.gov · primary source · cited for: supports
  3. 3August 6, 2024 Primary Results - Commissioner of Public Landsresults.vote.wa.gov · primary source · cited for: supports
  4. 4By a margin of 51 votes, Dave Upthegrove moves closer to General Election for Commissioner of Public Lands - The B-Town (Burien) Blogb-townblog.com · not rated · cited for: supports
  5. 52024 Washington Public Lands Commissioner election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org · not rated · cited for: supports

Where this claim was made

Said in 1 published post

How Polygraph checks a claim

Our Weekly Newsletter

The Readout

The week's most-shared posts, checked. What they claimed, how they argued, and what held up.

Unsubscribe any time. See our privacy policy.