Republicans have reduced crime nationwide.
Posted by Speaker Mike Johnson, Checked
- Sources
- 3 contradict5 support3 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
Speaker Mike Johnson@SpeakerJohnsonOct 31, 2026Democrats' RADICAL, open border immigration policies have repeatedly created deadly consequences for innocent Americans. Republicans have SECURED the border and reduced crime nationwide. If Democrats regain control, the progress we have made in the last 17 months will be destroyed, and horrific stories like this will once again become all too familiar.
The sources firmly document a nationwide decline in crime in 2025 (FBI violent crime down 9.7% to 9.3%, record murder drop, NCVS victimization down 25%), so the fact of a drop is supported.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What we found
Contradicts. Reuters reports the fall in crime predates Trump's return to office, with homicide rates plummeting in 2023 and 2024, which undercuts attributing the decline to Republicans.[1]
Contradicts. Mother Jones and The Inquirer report that the downward trend began during the Biden administration and that murders were already declining before Trump took over.[6][7]
Supports. The FBI's 2025 data show violent crime fell 9.7% (or 9.3% in other reports) and murder fell 18.5% (or 18.1%) from 2024 to 2025, the largest one-year declines since 1936.[2][3][8]
Supports. The Bureau of Justice Statistics' NCVS shows non-fatal serious violent victimization fell 25% in 2025, corroborating a broad national decline independent of FBI reporting.[4][9]
Context. Grassley and Trump attribute the drop to Republican policy and the 2024 election, a causal claim that the sources present as contested rather than established.[1][5]
Context. USAFacts and IBISWorld describe crime rates as trending downward for decades (since the early 1990s), indicating the decline is a long-running trend rather than a result of a single party's tenure.[10][11]
Sources
11 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 3 primary, 1 tier 2, 5 not rated
- 1Trump touts drop in US crime rates with an eye on midtermsreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts, context
- 2Trump's Numbers, October 2026 Updatefactcheck.org · fact-checker · cited for: supports
- 3Op-Ed: Violent Crime Down Across U.S., FBI Pivots to ...fbi.gov · primary source · cited for: supports
- 4National Crime Victimization Survey Shows Violent Crime ...justice.gov · primary source · cited for: supports
- 5ICYMI: Grassley Op-Ed: Republicans are leading a public safety revival. Americans are better off because of it.grassley.senate.gov · primary source · cited for: context
- 6The Crime Issue Is Kryptonite for Democrats. It Doesn't ...motherjones.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
- 7As violence falls, crime isn't paying as a Republican line of ...inquirer.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 8Violent crime in U.S. fell at record pace in 2025 | The Daily Chroniclechronline.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 9Violent crime victimization fell 25% in 2025, DOJ survey showsyahoo.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 10Is crime going up or down in the US?usafacts.org · not rated · cited for: context
- 11Crime rate in the US - Data and Analysis (1980-2032) - IBISWorldibisworld.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post