The current murder rate is at a 120-year low under the Republican administration.

Posted by Speaker Mike Johnson, Oct 30, 2026Checked Oct 30, 2026

Polygraph verdictMixed

Sources: 2 contradict3 support4 context
Said: 1 time·
Confidence: 60%

Speaker Mike Johnson@SpeakerJohnsonOct 30, 2026

… ✅ For a full fiscal year, the number is zero, and the border is secure thanks to Republicans. ❌ Democrats’ defund the police rhetoric and soft on crime policies let criminals off the hook and caused MASSIVE crime spikes in American communities. ✅ Today, the murder rate is at a 120-year low thanks to Republicans. Republicans have made incredible progress fixing the 4 years of DISASTER Joe Biden and Kamala Harris left behind. We know the job isn't done, and we'll keep fighting to continue improving the lives of all Americans.

10 claimsThe check →

The sources support that the US murder rate (about 4.1–4.2 per 100,000 in 2025, tying the lowest since national estimates began, and further down in 2026) is at or near a record low, and that the White House and some commentators attribute it to the Trump administration.

A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What we found

Contradicts. PolitiFact and the Stateline/CCJ survey report that it is unclear whether murder is at a record low going back 125 years, since older data are uncertain, and that the 'lowest since 1900' framing is an estimate rather than a settled record.[1][5]

Supports. FBI data show the 2025 murder rate fell to 4.1 per 100,000, tying the lowest since national estimates began (1955–1956), with an 18.1% decline from 2024.[3][5]

Supports. The Council on Criminal Justice projected the 2025 homicide rate to be the lowest ever recorded going back to 1900, and a mid-year 2026 report shows homicides down about 18% again.[1][6][7]

Context. Pew and CCJ-cited researchers attribute the decline to multiple factors (community violence intervention, pandemic recovery, focused deterrence, demographic shifts) and say no single cause or administration is established; the White House attributes it to Trump's law-and-order policies.[4][5][7][8]

Context. Extraction check: the original passage says 'the murder rate is at a 120-year low thanks to Republicans,' while the claim says 'current murder rate... under the Republican administration'; the 120-year figure is roughly consistent with sources citing 125–126 years, and the decline has trended through 2025 and into 2026 (later data does not negate the October 2026 status).[2][4][9]

Context. FactChecking.org notes the drop continues a multi-year trend that began before Trump's current term and that criminologists see multiple possible reasons for it.[2]