Serious violent crime fell 25% nationwide in 2025.
Posted by Speaker Mike Johnson, Checked
- Sources
- 6 contradict3 support2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
Speaker Mike Johnson@SpeakerJohnsonOct 27, 2026🚨Communities are SAFER thanks to Republicans! New data shows serious violent crime fell 25% nationwide in 2025. 🔻 Aggravated assault DOWN 31% 🔻 Motor vehicle theft DOWN 30% 🔻 Burglary and trespassing DOWN 25% 🔻 Property victimization DOWN 19% Republicans are fighting for you and your family. …
The 25% figure matches the BJS National Crime Victimization Survey's preliminary decline in serious violent victimization (violent crime excluding simple assault) from 9.9 to 7.4 per 1,000 people, but police-reported measures show declines of roughly 9–11% (FBI 9.3–9.7%, BJS NIBRS 11%), so the claim holds only under the victimization measure.
A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.
What we found
Contradicts. FBI data show violent crime fell 9.3% (rate down 9.7%, from 362.9 to 327.6 per 100,000) in 2025, a magnitude well under the claimed 25%.[1][2][3][4]
Contradicts. BJS's NIBRS-based report on crimes known to law enforcement shows the rate of violent offenses decreased 11% from 2024 to 2025, again far short of 25%.[5][7]
Supports. The BJS National Crime Victimization Survey reports that the rate of violent crime excluding simple assault (serious violent victimization) fell 25%, from 9.9 to 7.4 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older, from 2024 to 2025.[6][8][9]
Context. The 25% figure comes from preliminary victimization survey estimates that count unreported crimes, while the FBI and BJS-NIBRS figures count offenses reported to police, so the two measures diverge and the claim depends on which is meant.[4][5][6][10]
Context. Coverage of the NCVS release (CBS News, 11 and Yahoo/DOJ summary) repeats the 25% figure as attributed to the Justice Department, with the DOJ noting it as the largest decline since 1973 and the FBI's murder rate reaching a historic low.[8][9][11]
Sources
11 sources: 3 fact-checkers, 3 primary, 4 not rated, 1 tier 2
- 1Trump’s Numbers, October 2026 Update - FactCheck.orgfactcheck.org · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts
- 2US homicide rate hits 75-year low, FBI saysapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts
- 3Trump touts drop in US crime rates with an eye on midtermsreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts
- 4FBI Releases Historic Early Look at Annual Crime Data | Federal Bureau of Investigationfbi.gov · primary source · cited for: contradicts, context
- 5bjs.ojp.gov › crime-known-law-enforcement-2025Crime Known to Law Enforcement, 2025 - Bureau of Justice ...bjs.ojp.gov · primary source · cited for: contradicts, context
- 6Office of Public Affairs | National Crime Victimization ...justice.gov · primary source · cited for: supports, context
- 7Is crime going up or down in the US?usafacts.org · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 8Violent crime victimization fell 25% in 2025 over prior year ...cbsnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports, context
- 9DOJ Report: Violent, Property Crime Fell in 2025yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: supports, context
- 10Violent crime in U.S. fell at record pace in 2025 | The Daily Chroniclechronline.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 11Violent Crime Rate Falls 25% In 2025, Census Bureau Finds | 95.7 WDAE957wdae.iheart.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post