Polygraph

Lula da Silva won the election by 4.4 million votes.

Posted by Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov, Checked

Polygraph verdictTrue
Sources
4 support2 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
95%
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica TarlovOct 27, 2026
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56 claimsThe check →

Multiple tier1 sources (AP, BBC) and electoral-court-based reporting confirm Lula won the 2026 Brazil runoff by nearly 4.4 million votes, matching the claim; the claim is a faithful extraction of the post's 'Lula won by 4.4 million votes' and the post's 'Lula' refers to Lula da Silva.

Our two reads of who says this, and how, disagree, so it counts as the post's own claim.

What was said

… So this is really defying the odds. Um, there's some talk of election interference, of course, from the right, but that doesn't really hold up. Only 34,000 votes came in after the original deadline, and Lula won by 4.4 million votes. But I thought this was so interesting, because I, I was struck by a debate moment with Bolsonaro and Lula, uh, last week, where Bolsonaro brought up how Lula was winning a majority of votes of people in jail, and Lula snapped back, "I want a hundred percent …
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Supports. AP reports that with all votes counted, Lula won 51.8% and defeated Bolsonaro by nearly 4.4 million votes according to Brazil's electoral court.[1][3]

Supports. BBC reports the sheer gap between the two candidates' tallies was 4.4 million votes, confirmed by the Supreme Electoral Court president.[2]

Supports. Valor International gives Lula's margin as 4.4 million votes (64.2 million vs 59.8 million), consistent with the electoral count.[4]

Context. Bolsonaro refused to concede and called for results to be annulled, but no source reports the result being overturned; the margin figure is not disputed.[1][5][6]

Sources

6 sources: 1 fact-checker, 1 tier 1, 4 not rated

  1. 1Brazil votes in a tense Lula vs Bolsonaro runoff as extended ...apnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports, context
  2. 2Lula wins fourth term in dramatic Brazil election comeback - BBCbbc.com · tier 1 · cited for: supports
  3. 3Bolsonaro calls for Brazil poll results to be annulled - AAP Newsaapnews.aap.com.au · not rated · cited for: supports
  4. 4Lula wins historic comeback, bucking global rightward shiftvalorinternational.globo.com · not rated · cited for: supports
  5. 5Lula wins Brazil’s presidential election; Trump says vote looks ‘rigged’: Early analysis from Chatham House expertschathamhouse.org · not rated · cited for: context
  6. 6The Latest: Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins reelection over Flávio Bolsonaroinquirer.com · not rated · cited for: context

Where this claim was made

Said in 1 published post

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