Ted Cruz outperformed polling in his past elections by a wide margin.
Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked
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Louder with CrowderAug 19, 2026
Cruz beat his final polling average in 2024, when polls had him about four points ahead and he won by 8.5, which is roughly double the polled lead. In 2018, however, his final polls overstated him (about six to seven points ahead, he won by 2.6), so the claim that he outperformed polling across past elections is only partly supported.
What was said
… It could be real. Every single time I look at the poll, going, Hmm, this can't be right, this could be very, very real. Democrats have a real shot in Texas. What wasn't even right with the Cruz thing, because he outperformed those polls by a very wide, wide, wide margin. Look, let me just give you this. Hold me to this. I'm going to make a prediction right now, okay? Talorico, Paxton will it's not going to be close. It is not going to be close. He may not win by crazy margins like Ted Cruz does. …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. In 2018 the final averages had Cruz ahead of O'Rourke by six to seven points, but he won by only 2.6, and Emerson's final poll (Cruz +3) was nearly exact, so he did not outperform polling that cycle.[2]
Supports. Newsweek reports the final 2024 polling averages had Cruz ahead by roughly four points, while he won by 8.5, so he outperformed the polls that year.[2]
Context. AP's election results show Cruz's 2024 margin was +8.5% and his 2018 margin was +2.6%, matching the figures used in the Newsweek comparison.[1]
Context. A 2018 Quinnipiac poll showed Cruz leading by 6 points, and a 2018 retrospective notes a final RealClearPolitics average of about seven points for Cruz, both of which overstated his eventual margin.[3][4]
Sources
4 sources: 1 fact-checker, 3 not rated
- 12026 Texas U.S. Senate Election Resultsapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 2James Talarico’s Texas Hype Train Has a 2024 Problemnewsweek.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, supports
- 3Ted Cruz leads Beto O'Rourke 49-43 in Quinnipiac polltexastribune.org · not rated · cited for: context
- 4Beto Cruz Results: Fundraising, Polls, and Turnoutlegalclarity.org · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
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