The Democrat in the current Texas Senate race is polling nine points better than the Democrat in the 2018 Senate race at the same point in the cycle.
Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked
- Sources
- 1 contradict2 support4 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 55%
Louder with CrowderAug 19, 2026
The nine-point figure matches CNN analyst Harry Enten's comparison of a Fox News poll (Talarico +3) with a July 2018 Quinnipiac poll (Cruz +6), as reported by HuffPost and Raw Story on 2026-08-03.
Our two reads of who says this, and how, disagree, so it counts as the post's own claim.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… You take a look here, James Salario, the latest poll against Kent Huckney, he's actually up by three points. Look at where the race was between Beto O'roourke and Ted Cruz at this point in the 2018 cycle. Ted Cruz was a hit by six. This is very different. The Democrat here is doing nine points better. And what is supercharging that? Look at this: independence moved from tie to plus 39 points for James Talarico. Independence, the name of the game, shifting significantly to the left hand and supercharging James Talarico. It could be real. …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. A Capitol Inside piece dated April 30, 2026 puts Talarico 10 to 15 points ahead of O'Rourke's 2018 polling average, a different baseline that gives a materially different gap.[1]
Supports. Enten's comparison of a Fox News poll showing Talarico +3 against a July 2018 Quinnipiac poll showing Cruz +6 yields the roughly nine-point improvement cited in the claim.[2][3]
Context. Newsweek's May 2026 analysis describes Talarico as only modestly ahead of where O'Rourke stood in 2018, using RealClearPolling averages, which points to a smaller gap than nine points.[4]
Context. The claim's figure rests on a single poll compared against a single 2018 poll, while the 2018 comparison used different pollsters and dates. Later October polls show Talarico leading by roughly 2 to 4 points, consistent with a close race.[5][6][7]
Sources
7 sources: 5 not rated, 1 tier 2, 1 tier 3
- 1CAPITOL INSIDEcapitolinside.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 2This Key Group Is 'Supercharging' James Talarico In Texas Senate Race, Harry Enten Sayshuffpost.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 3'This can't be right': Data guru floored as new polling spells trouble for Texas GOPrawstory.com · tier 3 · cited for: supports
- 4Why James Talarico Has a Better Chance Than Beto O’Rourke ... -...newsweek.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 5New Texas Senate poll shows challenge for GOP in final daysrmb.reuters.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 6Texas Public Opinion Research, 18 October 2026: Texas Senatepollingforecast.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 7New Texas Senate poll shows challenge for GOP in final daysusatoday.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
Related claims
- In the 2018 Senate cycle, Ted Cruz was leading Beto O'Rourke by six points at this point in the cycle.Mixed
- The independent vote in the 2026 Texas election is tracking at the same level as it was in 2018.Can’t tell
- Democrats are polling a point or two ahead in Senate races in Texas, Ohio, and Alaska.Mixed
- Total voter turnout in Texas is currently tracking with 2018 levels.True
- James Talarico is leading in most polls for the Texas Senate race.True