In the 2020 election, polling overestimated Joe Biden's popularity by the worst margin of any polling in 40 years.
Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked
- Sources
- 6 support2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 85%
Louder with CrowderAug 19, 2026
The AAPOR task force report, covered by The Hill, Politico, USC Dornsife and Pew, found the 2020 national popular-vote polling error was the highest in 40 years, with polls overstating Biden's margin by about 3.9 points. The claim's word 'popularity' loosely describes vote margin, which is a casual paraphrase rather than a change in meaning.
What was said
… Also in that election, the aggregate polling had every single swing state wrong. 2020, even though, you know, when people talk this is also a reason people talk about election potential election fraud, I know uh safest and most fair ever, 2020, they were even worse. They overestimated Biden's popularity by the worst margin of all polling in 40 years. So even if he won a state, let's say i don't remember if it was Wisconsin or Pennsylvania they had him up by like 11, and he won by half a point. Then in 2024, remember that famous pollster, one of the most respected? …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. The AAPOR task force found the 2020 national popular-vote polling error was the highest in 40 years, and that polls were too favorable to Biden by 3.9 points on the margin.[3][4][5]
Supports. Pew's Q&A with the task force chair says the 2020 polling error was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and mostly overstated support for Biden relative to Trump.[6]
Supports. Boston Globe and Bakersfield coverage of the same report describe the 2020 national polls as the widest error in 40 years, with errors favoring Democrats.[7][8]
Context. The superlative applies to national popular-vote polls; state-level polls were the worst in at least 20 years, since that is the period for which state performance has been tracked.[1][5]
Context. The report could not conclusively explain why the polls erred, but this does not affect whether the error was the largest in 40 years.[2][3]
Sources
8 sources: 2 primary, 1 tier 1, 1 tier 2, 4 not rated
- 1Election polls in 2020 produced 'error of unusual magnitude,' expert ...ucpress.edu · primary source · cited for: context
- 2Can these questions continue to make political polls more ...dornsife.usc.edu · primary source · cited for: context
- 3Pollsters: ‘Impossible’ to say what went wrong in 2020thehill.com · tier 1 · cited for: supports, context
- 4Pollsters: ‘Impossible’ to say why 2020 polls were wrongpolitico.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 5[PDF] Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling report (AAPOR)aapor.org · not rated · cited for: supports, context
- 6Q&A: A conversation about U.S. election polling problems in 2020pewresearch.org · not rated · cited for: supports
- 7A report found 2020′s political polling was the worst in 40 years ...bostonglobe.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 82020 polls persistently understated support for Trump and GOP ...bakersfieldnow.com · not rated · cited for: supports
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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