Polygraph AnalysisNo. 1
On Air: Election fraud
Podcast talk of voter fraud more than doubled from summer to October. Most episodes came from small shows. Most of the audience heard it from a few big ones.
- Shows
- 2,106
- Episodes
- 6,816
- Phrases
- 6
- Period
- Jul 27 – Oct 28
On Air follows political talking points through America’s podcasts: which shows say them, how many people hear them, and what claims come with them. All issues
Key takeaways
- 2.7×as many podcast episodes used voter-fraud phrases in the week of October 19 as in an average summer week.
- 66%of rated episodes that used a fraud phrase came from right-leaning shows, and 32% from left-leaning ones.
- 53%of the rated estimated audience for voter-fraud phrases came from right-leaning podcasts, and 41% from left-leaning ones: close to even.
- 6shows carried half the estimated audience for “voter fraud,” out of 1,459 that said it.
- 55%of podcast episodes that used voter-fraud phrases came from the long tail, shows too small to make any Apple chart. They carry about 4% of the estimated audience.
- 65%of statements about voter fraud on right-leaning podcasts asserted it, Polygraph’s analysis found. On left-leaning podcasts, 13%.
How much, and how fast?
How many podcast episodes and shows used the six fraud phrases each week, and how quickly that grew.
How much, and how fast?
1,013 podcast episodes used a fraud phrase in the week of October 19, about 2.7 times the summer average of 380 a week.
Each bar is a week of episodes that said “voter fraud,” “election fraud,” “rigged election,” “stolen election,” “illegal voting” or “noncitizen voting.” The last bar is three days, Monday to Wednesday this week: 778 episodes, 3.9 times the summer average of 202 for those days.
632 podcasts used a phrase in the week of October 19, up from 274 in the last week of July: more shows joining, not just the same shows talking more.
In all, 2,106 different podcasts used one of the phrases since July 27. Of the six, “rigged election” grew fastest: 7.6 times its summer average this Monday to Wednesday.
How much, and how fast?
Episodes and shows per week
Episodes that used any of the six phrases (bars) and distinct shows that used one (line), per week · the last week is Oct 26–28 only
Episodes and shows per week
Episodes that used any of the six phrases (bars) and distinct shows that used one (line), per week · the last week is Oct 26–28 only
Source: Particle
Host · asserting it
…seven non-citizens have now been charged for unlawfully voting in federal elections or falsely claiming United States citizenship. That just keeps happening.”
Bongino Report Early Edition with Evita“They Said They'd Never Go Back! | Episode 371”RightSep 16, 2026
Claim: Noncitizens are voting in large numbers
Who’s saying it, by lean?
Which side’s shows used the phrases, counted by episodes and weighed by estimated audience.
Who’s saying it, by lean?
66% of rated episodes came from right-leaning shows, and 32% from left-leaning ones.
Each square is one episode, stacked by the week it came out and coloured by the show’s lean rating. The mix moved little week to week: 71% of rated episodes were right-leaning in the week of July 27, 65% in the week of October 19. Most small shows have no rating, and a mention is not an endorsement: NPR’s hourly newscast is in these counts, and so are hosts rebutting the claims.
53% of the rated estimated audience came from right-leaning shows, and 41% from left-leaning ones: close to even, where the episodes lean right.
Each phrase has two bars: its rated episodes and its rated estimated audience, split by the show’s lean. By episodes, every phrase with at least 100 episodes leans right. By audience every phrase moves left, and under our main estimate “rigged election” and “illegal voting” tip past even, because a few large left-leaning news shows carry much of the audience. “Stolen election” is the most right-leaning by both measures: 80% of its rated episodes, 60–66% of its audience under every weighting we tried.
“Noncitizen voting” is too thin to read: 52 episodes, and one show can swing it.
Who’s saying it, by lean?
Episodes by week, by the show’s lean
Each square is one episode · 6,816 episodes · the last week is Oct 26–28 only
Each phrase by the show’s lean: episodes beside estimated audience
Shows with a lean rating only · an episode with two phrases counts in both · audience weighs each episode by its show’s estimated audience
Source: Particle (episodes, lean ratings, audience estimates)
Host · asserting it
…the 2020 presidential election was stolen by Democrats with the backing of China and the CCP Chinese Communist Party.”
Wayne Allyn Root’s WAR Zone Audio Hours“Wayne Allyn Root’s WAR Zone 10-21-26”Far rightOct 22, 2026
Claim: The 2020 election was won by fraud
Who hears it?
How many people these episodes may have reached, by the size of the show, and which shows reached them.
Who hears it?
55% of the episodes came from the long tail: 1,325 shows too small to make any chart. They carry about 4% of the estimated audience.
That is our main estimate; under the other weightings we tried it is 3–18%. Hover over or tap a square for the show and the episode, or find a show above the chart.
80% of the estimated audience came from the 190 shows near the top of the charts, with 12% of the episodes.
Big shows say the phrases less often, but each episode reaches far more people.
6 shows carried half the estimated audience for “voter fraud,” out of 1,459 that said it.
Each bar is one show’s share of the estimated audience for “voter fraud,” largest first, in the show’s lean colour. The running total passes half at the sixth.
36% of the “voter fraud” audience came from the other 1,447 shows that said it, below the top 12.
Split by the show’s lean, that long list tilts left: 58% of its audience is on left-leaning shows, 28% on right-leaning ones.
12% of the “voter fraud” estimated audience came from one episode of The Joe Rogan Experience.
Across all six phrases, his 3 episodes carried about a fifth of the estimated audience. They are passing mentions in long interviews. One episode of the biggest show reaches more people than hundreds of small shows’ episodes put together, so a few of them can move the audience totals on their own.
Who hears it?
Share of episodes and of estimated audience, by show size
Left: one square per episode. Right: each square’s area is its show’s estimated audience per episode · Estimated audience: each episode weighed by its show’s size · rough estimates for comparison · Jul 27 – Oct 28
Share of episodes and of estimated audience, by show size
Left: one square per episode. Right: each square’s area is its show’s estimated audience per episode · Estimated audience: each episode weighed by its show’s size · rough estimates for comparison · Jul 27 – Oct 28
“Voter fraud”: the shows that carry its audience
Share of the “voter fraud” estimated audience · 1,459 shows, 3,833 episodes · Estimated audience: each episode weighed by its show’s size · rough estimates for comparison · Jul 27 – Oct 28
“Voter fraud”: the shows that carry its audience
Share of the “voter fraud” estimated audience · 1,459 shows, 3,833 episodes · Estimated audience: each episode weighed by its show’s size · rough estimates for comparison · Jul 27 – Oct 28
“Voter fraud”: The Joe Rogan Experience among the shows that carry its audience
Share of the “voter fraud” estimated audience · 1,459 shows, 3,833 episodes · Estimated audience: each episode weighed by its show’s size · rough estimates for comparison · Jul 27 – Oct 28
Source: Particle (episodes, lean ratings, audience estimates). Rough estimates for comparison.
Host · reporting it
Trump's Department of Homeland Security is beginning what they call a surge, a surge of voter fraud investigations across nine states.”
Erin Burnett OutFront“Speaker Johnson Lashes Out at Questions on Prolonged Iran War”Leans leftSep 2, 2026
Claim: Homeland Security is running a surge of voter fraud investigations in nine states
What are they actually saying?
What the people speaking did with fraud claims in a random sample we transcribed from each show’s own audio, and how the claims moved from show to show.
What are they actually saying?
65% of fraud statements on right-leaning shows assert it. On left-leaning shows: 13%.
Each square is one in a hundred of a side’s statements about fraud, filled in stance order from the top left, so asserting lands top left and rebutting bottom right. The shares count everyone on air: hosts, guests and played clips.
79% of statements on far-right shows assert it. On right and leans-right shows it is 60% and 61%; on leans-left and left shows, 11% and 15%.
One waffle for each lean rating, far right to left. The sample had one far-left segment, which is not shown.
109 claims turned up on more than one show in our sample. These 8 travelled furthest.
The one that reached the most shows, that noncitizens are voting in large numbers, came up on 75 shows: 41 right-leaning episodes, 68% of them asserting it, and 52 left-leaning ones, 77% rebutting it. Hover over or tap a mark for the show and what was said.
10 right-leaning shows in our sample took up the claim of voter fraud and vouching abuse in Minnesota, and none rebutted it.
It went from The Mark Simone Show on Aug 12 to LARRY with Larry O'Connor on Oct 27, one show after another, all on the right.
8 left-leaning shows took up Nevada’s 16,000 flagged noncitizen voters, 8 of 9 episodes to rebut it. No right-leaning show in our sample made the claim.
The rebuttal travels too: from The Lead with Jake Tapper on Aug 22 to Letters from an American on Oct 27.
1,353 statements about fraud, each sorted by what the person speaking did with it. Here is how they sound on air.
A stance is what was said, not a check of whether the claim is true.
What are they actually saying?
What the person speaking did with a fraud statement
Each square is 1% of a side’s statements, everyone on air · 1,353 statements in 437 sampled segments
What the person speaking did with it, by the show’s lean
Each square is 1% of a lean rating’s statements, everyone on air
The 8 claims that reached the most shows, by date
One mark per sampled episode that made the claim · first seen in our sample, which starts Jul 27, not where a claim began · 437 segments
Fraud and vouching abuse in Minnesota: every episode, by date
One mark per sampled episode that made the claim · first seen in our sample, which starts Jul 27, not where a claim began · 437 segments
Nevada’s 16,000 flagged noncitizen voters: every episode, by date
One mark per sampled episode that made the claim · first seen in our sample, which starts Jul 27, not where a claim began · 437 segments
Statements as heard on air
Verbatim, from our transcript of each show’s audio
Source: Particle (episodes, lean ratings)
Host · rebutting it
…they thought there were 16,000 non-citizens illegally registered. They did a big follow-up. it turned out 185. not 16,000. They did another follow-up. turned out it wasn't 185. it was zero. zero.”
Real Time with Bill Maher“Ep. #746: Karoline Leavitt, Gov. Andy Beshear, Steve Hilton”Leans leftOct 24, 2026
Claim: Nevada flagged 16,000 noncitizen voters