Illegal aliens are self-deporting or avoiding criminal activity because they fear being picked up and deported by the Trump administration.
Posted by VINCE, Checked
- Sources
- 1 contradict1 support2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 40%
VINCEOct 28, 2026
The sources support that self-deportation is occurring at scale (the White House cites 2.2 million self-deportations), but none measures why people leave or avoid crime, so the motive claim is not directly tested. The Atlantic disputes the causal link between ICE enforcement and falling crime, and the DHS statement only correlates deportations with crime drops.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… aliens, if you're deporting them from the United States of America when we had John Lott on my radio show earlier this week, I was asking him about these epic numbers. We've had huge crime drops, and I was going over some of those with you yesterday uh but one of the realities of the crime drops, especially among illegal aliens, is illegal aliens are now aware that if they break the law, if they become visible to the Trump administration in any capacity, they'll be picked up and deported. And so now illegals, some of them are going home; they're self-deporting. Others are kind of laying low, and they're not breaking laws. They're not breaking additional laws, in addition outside of being here in the country illegally and staying present. And the reason for that is they don't want to get on the Trump administration's radar. This has had a safety effect for the country. …
VINCE · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. The Atlantic reports that the administration's claim that ICE enforcement drives falling crime is not backed by its own data, since several sharpest-drop jurisdictions are sanctuary jurisdictions.[3]
Supports. The White House release claims 2.2 million self-deportations and over 675,000 deportations, which supports that self-deportation is happening, though it is a government assertion rather than independently verified data.[1]
Context. DHS attributes historic-low crime rates to deportations of criminal illegal aliens, asserting coincidence and common sense rather than documenting offenders' fear or motives.[2]
Context. The BBC notes that a large share of recent ICE arrests involve people without criminal convictions, which bears on whether deportation fear is aimed at criminal behavior specifically.[4]
Context. No source measures whether undocumented immigrants are laying low or avoiding crimes out of fear of deportation; the claim's causal mechanism is the post's own assertion.
Sources
4 sources: 2 primary, 1 tier 2, 1 tier 1
- 1President Trump Is Securing Our Homeland: Ending the Invasion ...whitehouse.gov · primary source · cited for: supports
- 2LAW AND ORDER: Crime Rates Reach Historic Lows Following DHS Deportations of Criminal Illegal Aliensdhs.gov · primary source · cited for: context
- 3The Problem With Trump’s Crime Claimstheatlantic.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
- 4Five ways Trump has changed immigration in the USbbc.co.uk · tier 1 · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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