Peggy Flanagan is leading in the polls for the Minnesota Senate race with a greater than 90% chance of winning.
Posted by The Gerry Callahan Show, Checked
- Sources
- 1 support4 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 45%
The Gerry Callahan ShowAug 17, 2026
The sources show Flanagan leading Tafoya in post-primary polls, including a Newsweek-reported Quantus poll from September and TIPP showing a narrow lead, so the lead is broadly supported.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… gender mutilation for kids, and, and, and allowing, uh, foreign criminals to rip us off for billions, who said nothing, posted nothing about the Somali fraud in her state, did nothing about it. She wants, she's lieutenant governor, wants to be senator, and she is leading in the polls, and her chances of winning a seat in the Senate are over 90%. And if you're like me, you sit back and say, how did this happen? Well, as we explained Friday, this scandal was exposed by by James O'Keefe and Cam Higbie and a few others. …
The Gerry Callahan Show · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. A Newsweek report from 2026-09-11 says a Quantus Insights poll had Flanagan leading Tafoya 48.2% to 44.4%, and that post-primary polling had generally shown Flanagan ahead, though within the margin of error in some surveys.[1]
Supports. A TIPP/League of American Workers poll conducted August 31 to September 2 found Flanagan with a narrow lead, 44% to 42%.[1]
Context. Bloomberg reported on 2026-10-31 that Kalshi odds gave Flanagan a 90% chance of winning, while VoteHub polling averages showed a lead of just under six points; this is a later market price, not a figure for 2026-08-17.[2]
Context. Polling in the weeks before the election varied widely, with a NYT/Siena poll showing Flanagan up 14 and other pollsters showing single-digit leads, so the lead size depends on which poll is used.[3][4][5]
Context. The claim's post repeats this figure as a campaign assertion, and the claim's odds figure is a projection about a future election outcome, which the sources cannot verify as of the claim date.
Sources
5 sources: 2 not rated, 3 tier 2
- 1Peggy Flanagan's Chances of Losing to Michele Tafoya in ...newsweek.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 2Betting odds look more certain than polls, but don't let that confuse youbloomberg.com · tier 2 · cited for: context
- 3Latest polls show Klobuchar, Flanagan with double-digit ...cbsnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: context
- 4Minnesota U.S. Senate Election 2026: Latest Pollsnytimes.com · tier 2 · cited for: context
- 5What to know about polling as the election draws nearstartribune.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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