The Michigan Senate primary election results were closer than pre-election polls indicated.

Posted by The Charlie Kirk Show, Aug 5, 2026Checked Nov 2, 2026

Polygraph verdictTrue

Sources: 5 support
Said: 1 time·
Confidence: 92%

The Charlie Kirk ShowAug 5, 2026

Abdul El-Sayed is the Democrats' Senate nominee — but the race was far closer than any poll indicated after landslide mail vote from Detroit. Mark Mitchell helps ask the question: Just what happened here? Did the Democrat establishment try to stuff ballots against their own left-wing insurgents? And does El-Sayed's win give Mike Rogers a strong chance in the Great Lakes State? …

56 claimsThe check →

The certified AP results show El-Sayed winning 48.4% to 47.6%, a margin of about one point, while the pre-election polling average showed El-Sayed ahead by roughly 10 points and most individual polls showed double-digit leads. Some individual polls, such as Glengariff's Stevens +7 and Susquehanna's El-Sayed +2, were closer, but the claim is about polls in general and is supported.

What we found

Supports. AP's certified results show El-Sayed at 48.4% and Stevens at 47.6%, a margin just under one percentage point, which is far narrower than the polling leads.[1][2]

Supports. The RCP average for July showed El-Sayed ahead by about 10.2 points, and Mitchell, Emerson, and Tulchin polls showed leads of 14 to 16 points, so the final result fell well short of the polls.[3]

Supports. NYT's race coverage describes El-Sayed's win as 'albeit a narrower one than most polls had suggested.'[2]

Supports. Woodtv reports that Michigan's polls missed the August primary by double digits, and WKAR reports that pre-primary polls predicted large margins that instead became a narrow victory.[4][5]

Context. Some pollsters, such as Zenith Research and Glengariff, had different results, and analysts attribute the miss to turnout and electorate modeling problems rather than to a single error.[3][4][5]