Abdul El-Sayed underperformed polling in the Michigan Senate primary.
Posted by The Charlie Kirk Show, Checked
- Sources
- 2 support
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 70%
The Charlie Kirk ShowAug 5, 2026
Pre-primary polls had El-Sayed ahead by roughly 13 points on average, but he won the August 4 Democratic primary by about one point, so he underperformed the polling. The claim's 'massively' is dropped from the extraction, which is a faithful paraphrase.
What was said
… And so I look at that race, and I say, well, what do we know so far? There was huge turnout. There was a really big mail-in turnout, and Syed massively underperformed the polling. And so what I'm looking at then is, why did Syed underperform the polling? Well, he was outcompeted. Stevens had a ton of money. …
The Charlie Kirk Show · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. National Review reports that El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic Senate primary by less than a point after the last five polls had him up by double digits.[1]
Supports. WLNS reports El-Sayed won the Aug. 4 primary by roughly 1 point, while the pre-election average had him up about 13 points, an industry-wide miss of roughly 12 points on the margin.[2]
Context. WLNS attributes most of the miss to differential non-response, with El-Sayed supporters responding to surveys at higher rates. This explains the cause of the miss but does not dispute that the miss occurred.[2]
Sources
2 sources: 1 tier 2, 1 not rated
- 1Why Michigan Polls Overestimated Abdul El-Sayednationalreview.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 2Michigan's polling miss, explained by a pollster who was wrong: ‘Your respondents are your respondents'wlns.com · not rated · cited for: supports, context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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