Inflation is caused by the war in Iran.
Said by Fox News, Checked Updated
- Sources
- 3 contradict5 support1 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
Mike Johnson@MikeJohnsonOct 19, 2026The claim as extracted ('Inflation is caused by the war in Iran') overstates the speaker's passage ('that's related to the conflict in Iran'); the sources do show the Iran war raising US inflation via oil price surges (e.g., BIS estimates of 1.5–2 percentage points added in 2026–2027, Dallas Fed and CEPR analyses), but inflation also reflects pre-war trends and other.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… But I genuinely believe that this midterm is unlike any other. We have a broadening chasm between the two parties. You're right. Under Biden and Harris, gas prices went to $5 a gallon. Now gas prices are too high. Right now, inflation is too high. But that's related to the conflict in Iran. And as soon as as that is resolved, which I think happens soon after the election, then prices come back down. The reason they went to $5 a gallon under Biden is because of all the things you just said. They wanted to end fossil fuels. …
What we found
Contradicts. The sources describe inflation as having been on a path of easing before the war, and the OECD forecast and IMF commentary treat the war as one factor among others, which contradicts the claim that the war alone causes inflation.[2][3][4]
Supports. Multiple analyses link the Iran war to higher US inflation through a surge in oil prices and disrupted oil trade, with BIS estimating the conflict adds about 1.5–2 percentage points to inflation in 2026–2027.[5][6][7]
Supports. AP reports that retail prices for gasoline, airfare, and some goods rose more than seven months into the U.S.-Iran war, showing war-related price effects as of the claim date.[1][8]
Context. Estimates of the war's inflation effect are given as ranges and depend on the scale and persistence of energy disruption, so the size of the war's contribution is not a single settled figure.[5][6][9]
Sources
9 sources: 1 fact-checker, 1 tier 2, 7 not rated
- 1Retail price impacts from the Iran war are uneven but add ...apnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
- 2The U.S. economy before and after the Iran war, in five chartsnbcnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
- 3The Iran War has increased prices, but the global calculus ...facebook.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 4Economic impact of the 2026 Iran waren.wikipedia.org · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 5Inflation after the Iran warbis.org · not rated · cited for: supports, context
- 6The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflationdallasfed.org · not rated · cited for: supports, context
- 7Quantifying the impact of the Iran war on US inflationcepr.org · not rated · cited for: supports
- 8Gas and Oil Prices Soar As Trump Deals With Iran War ...businessinsider.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 9Iran war: forecasting the fallout, answering your questionscapitaleconomics.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
Checked 3 times
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