State Navigate gave Francesca Hong a 22 point lead five days before her election loss.
Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked
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- 4 support
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 85%
Louder with CrowderAug 19, 2026
State Navigate's final Wisconsin Democratic governor primary poll, finished August 6 and published August 7, showed Francesca Hong leading David Crowley 44% to 22%, a 22-point lead five days before the August 11 primary, which Crowley won by about 0.5 points (3,796 votes).
What was said
… Matheson? Yeah, exactly right. Ah, Francesca Hong, right? This polling firm gave her 20 point lead sorry 23 point lead. I don't know if that one caught on as much, but a lot of people thought that she was going to win and, of course, ah, did not. There was a legitimate pollster, though, that hasn't admitted to being a social experiment: ah, State Navigate. They gave Francesca Hong a 22 point lead five days before her significant loss. So when the troll job, when the parody is really the exact same as the legitimate pollster, you go, Oh, how is that an accident? And more importantly, how is it an accident when this should be easier than ever? It's not. …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. State Navigate's final poll, published August 7, 2026, is headlined as showing Hong with a 22-point lead in the Democratic governor primary.[1][2]
Supports. Newsweek reports the final State Navigate survey (August 3 to 6, 1,473 likely primary voters, ±2.3 points) had Hong at 44% and Crowley at 22%.[2]
Supports. Chosun reports the 22-point advantage existed five days before the election and that Hong lost the primary by 3,796 votes, per Wisconsin Elections Commission results (Crowley 39.8%, Hong 39.3%).[3]
Supports. G. Elliott Morris's reanalysis confirms State Navigate's August poll still had Hong up 44-22 after interviewing finished on August 6, and that Crowley won five days later.[4]
Context. The poll's 22-point error is widely discussed as a major polling miss, and analysts attribute it to weighting and late shifts toward Crowley, not to any misreporting of the lead State Navigate published.[3][4]
Sources
4 sources: 4 not rated
- 1Final Poll Shows Francesca Hong with 22-Point Lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Primarystatenavigate.org · not rated · cited for: supports
- 2Francesca Hong's chances of beating David Crowley in Wisconsin: Final pollsnewsweek.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 3Strategic voters and Evers' endorsement swing Wisconsin race against Hongbiz.chosun.com · not rated · cited for: supports, context
- 4I reanalyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. ...gelliottmorris.com · not rated · cited for: supports, context
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