A Rasmussen projection for the midterms shows Democrats with 53 Senate seats and Republicans with 46.
Posted by IHIP News, Checked
- Sources
- 2 contradict2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
IHIP NewsOct 15, 2026
No source reports a Rasmussen Senate projection of 53 Democratic seats. Rasmussen's own October 15 comments describe the Senate as a "50-50 shot" that is too close to call, which is incompatible with a 53-46 Democratic projection.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… It's pretty sad. Oh, my God. It's awful. All right, let's look at some conservative polling, ah, and with some predictions for the midterms. Pop this up: Senate projection from Rasmussen, Democrats 53, Republicans 46. Now, Isaiah, let's talk about you. I, all of my audience here, we all have a lot of PTSD from '24, and I get excited about the polls, and I project my moral compass. Like, nobody's gonna vote for this. Everybody wants to see these people held to account. …
IHIP News · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. Rasmussen's Senate comments published on the posting date describe the chamber as a "50-50 shot" that is too close to call, not a 53-seat Democratic majority.[3]
Contradicts. Rasmussen's Senate ratings as reported on October 29 show 47 seats safe or likely Democratic and 46 safe or likely Republican, with seven competitive seats, so the claimed 53 Democratic seats is not reflected.[4]
Context. The current Senate breakdown is 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control, which makes a 53-seat Democratic projection a large swing from the baseline.[1][2]
Context. The 46 Republican figure in the claim matches the number of Republican seats Rasmussen rated safe or likely, but the Democratic figure does not match, so the claim appears to misreport the projection.[4]
Sources
4 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 2 not rated
- 1Midterms: Your questions, answeredreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 2Senate races to watch in the 2026 midterm electionsapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 3Turnout will decide whether Republicans can defy midterm ...news3lv.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 4Pollster Reveals the Real Story Behind Republicans' Midterm Woesdailysignal.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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