In 2024, Donald Trump won over low-propensity voters.
Posted by The Lawfare Podcast, Checked
- Sources
- 4 support1 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 75%
The Lawfare PodcastOct 8, 2026
Multiple sources report that Trump won low-propensity voters in 2024: NPR cites exit polls showing he won first-time voters and those who did not vote in 2020, and a 2026 G. Elliott Morris analysis finds Trump won the least engaged quarter of voters by 13 points.
What was said
… I mean, the next election looks different, as as Molly, the other Molly's already articulated, of course. It's a different profile, and particularly for, like, potentially the Republican Party, because I remember in 2024, a big edge of President Trump was that he ended up really winning over low-propensity voters in a way that people, you know well, I think with him, he has had some record of that, but traditionally people rebel candidates have had trouble with, and it really brings in a question: Well, if you're going to bring to big barriers to entry that actually hurts you disproportionately with low propensity voters, are you going to be …
The Lawfare Podcast · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. NPR reports that Trump 'did well with low-propensity voters by a number of measures,' winning first-time voters and people who did not vote in 2020, according to network exit polls.[2]
Supports. WHYY reports that 'the so-called low-propensity voters, which Trump gambled on showing up, did vote for him,' and that likely voter models understated them.[3]
Supports. USA Today reports that the Trump campaign targeted 'low-propensity voters' and that its turnout operation produced new Trump voters who helped him prevail in key battleground states.[4]
Supports. Morris's Strength In Numbers polling found Trump won the least engaged quarter of 2024 voters by 13 points, while Harris won the more engaged three-quarters by about 3 points.[5]
Context. Reuters reported before the election that the Trump campaign was placing an unprecedented emphasis on reaching low-propensity voters, which describes the strategy rather than its result.[1]
Context. NPR notes it is unclear whether Republicans can keep winning low-propensity voters going forward, or whether this was a Trump-specific phenomenon; the 2024 claim itself is not disputed.[2]
Sources
5 sources: 1 fact-checker, 1 tier 2, 3 not rated
- 1In a risky ploy to beat Harris, Trump is targeting voters who don't usually votereuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 2Will Trump's election make Republicans rethink voting policy? - NPRnpr.org · tier 2 · cited for: supports, context
- 3The polls underestimated Trump's support — again. Here's ...whyy.org · not rated · cited for: supports
- 4How Trump won the White House (again): These key issues propelled election winusatoday.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 5Low-engagement voters are swinging hard toward Democratsgelliottmorris.com · not rated · cited for: supports
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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