The Michigan Senate primary election results were closer than pre-election polls indicated.
Posted by The Charlie Kirk Show, Checked
- Sources
- 5 support
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 92%
The Charlie Kirk ShowAug 5, 2026
Abdul El-Sayed is the Democrats' Senate nominee — but the race was far closer than any poll indicated after landslide mail vote from Detroit. Mark Mitchell helps ask the question: Just what happened here? Did the Democrat establishment try to stuff ballots against their own left-wing insurgents? And does El-Sayed's win give Mike Rogers a strong chance in the Great Lakes State? …
The certified AP results show El-Sayed winning 48.4% to 47.6%, a margin of about one point, while the pre-election polling average showed El-Sayed ahead by roughly 10 points and most individual polls showed double-digit leads. Some individual polls, such as Glengariff's Stevens +7 and Susquehanna's El-Sayed +2, were closer, but the claim is about polls in general and is supported.
This claim is in the show notes, the publisher's own words. It counts against the post, once.
What we found
Supports. AP's certified results show El-Sayed at 48.4% and Stevens at 47.6%, a margin just under one percentage point, which is far narrower than the polling leads.[1][2]
Supports. The RCP average for July showed El-Sayed ahead by about 10.2 points, and Mitchell, Emerson, and Tulchin polls showed leads of 14 to 16 points, so the final result fell well short of the polls.[3]
Supports. NYT's race coverage describes El-Sayed's win as 'albeit a narrower one than most polls had suggested.'[2]
Supports. Woodtv reports that Michigan's polls missed the August primary by double digits, and WKAR reports that pre-primary polls predicted large margins that instead became a narrow victory.[4][5]
Context. Some pollsters, such as Zenith Research and Glengariff, had different results, and analysts attribute the miss to turnout and electorate modeling problems rather than to a single error.[3][4][5]
Sources
5 sources: 1 fact-checker, 1 tier 2, 3 not rated
- 1Michigan U.S. Senate Primary Election Live Results 2026 | AP Newsapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
- 2Michigan U.S. Senate Primary 2026 Live Election Resultsnytimes.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 32026 Michigan Senate - Democratic Primary (August 4)realclearpolling.com · not rated · cited for: supports, context
- 4Michigan's primary polls missed by double digits. Here's what two ...woodtv.com · not rated · cited for: supports, context
- 5Why polls got the Michigan Democratic Senate primary so wrongwkar.org · not rated · cited for: supports, context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
Related claims
- The Michigan Senate primary race between Abdul El-Sayed and Stevens was decided by a one-point margin.True
- Abdul El-Sayed underperformed polling in the Michigan Senate primary.True
- The margin in the Michigan primary race between Abdul El-Sayed and his opponent is 14,000 votes.True
- Mike Rogers lost to Senator Slotkin in the August 2026 primary election.Can’t tell
- Abdul El-Sayed won the Michigan Democratic primary with 48.48% of the vote compared to 47.51% for his opponent.True