How we know Donald Trump is freaking out about his disastrous poll numbers

What it claims

Claims

1. 1TrueDonald Trump previously banned a member of the news media from the White House following a midterm election.The claim's referent is Trump's first-term attempt to ban CNN's Jim Acosta by revoking his credentials after a contentious news conference about the 2018 midterm elections, which the sources place after that midterm. Only two sources (the same article syndicated by The Conversation and the Daily Gazette) address this, so confidence is moderate, and the sources describe it as an attempt to ban rather than a completed ban.4 sources →
2. 2TrueJim Acosta challenged being banned from the White House during Donald Trump's first term.Multiple tier1 and tier2 sources (AP, Reuters, Politico, CNN) report that a federal judge ordered the White House to restore Jim Acosta's press pass in November 2018 after his ban, and the White House later fully restored it, confirming Acosta successfully challenged the ban during Trump's first term. The claim matches the passage's own description, and the 2026 NPR interview confirms the outcome.7 sources →

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3. 3TrueDonald Trump banned CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House.Trump announced on September 18, 2026 that CNN, MS NOW and Politico were banned from the White House, and reporters from all three were denied access on September 19, so the claim held as of 2026-09-24. A federal judge later blocked enforcement of the ban (temporary order, then a preliminary injunction on October 14), which does not change the claim's status on the posting date.7 sources →
4. 4TrueDonald Trump has attempted to interfere in states' elections.Multiple tier-1 and tier-2 sources (AP, Reuters, NPR, NYT, NBC, Stateline) document Trump administration actions to intervene in state elections, including DOJ civil suits against Alaska and California to block ballots from being counted, a DHS purge effort, and orders from federal judges against intimidating election officials. The extracted claim matches the passage's wording and the sources show these attempts, though courts have largely blocked them.7 sources →
5. 5TrueThe New York Times published a story on May 14, 1970, titled 'Witness Presents Pornography Commissioner with a Pie in the Face.'The New York Times sitemap for May 14, 1970 lists an article titled 'Witness Presents Pornography Commissioner With a Pie (in the Face)', matching the claimed headline apart from minor punctuation. A High Times piece says the Times ran the story the next morning, and a May 14, 1970 AP-based Daily Reflector report confirms the pie incident, though one Wikipedia reference dates the NYT article to May 13.4 sources →

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6. 6TrueThomas K. Forsad was the project coordinator of the Underground Press Syndicate.Sources identify Thomas King Forçade (spelled 'Forsad' in the post) as the project coordinator of the Underground Press Syndicate, and other sources say he took over and ran the UPS. The post's 'Forsad' spelling appears to be a variant of the same person, and the extraction matches the passage's wording.4 sources →

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7. 7TrueThomas Forsad founded the magazine High Times.The sources consistently identify the founder of High Times as Thomas King Forçade (also spelled Forcade or Forsad), who was born Gary Goodson, so the claim that Thomas Forsad founded the magazine is supported. The claim's spelling is a variant of the same person's name, and the claim does not depart from the passage.7 sources →

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8. 8Can’t tellThe Nixon White House denied Thomas Forsyth a press pass in 1971.None of the provided sources mention Thomas Forsyth or any 1971 White House press-pass denial to him; the only support is the claimant's own passage, which cannot corroborate the claim. Sources on Nixon's hostility to the press (e.g., the Washington Post exclusion) are about different referents and do not confirm or refute this specific denial.5 sources →

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9. 9TrueA federal judge found that the government's failure to devise, publicize, and utilize narrow and specific standards for the issuance or denial of press passes infringes on First Amendment rights.The claim matches the post's passage, which describes a federal judge's ruling on White House press passes. The primary court opinions in Forcade v. Knight (D.D.C. 1976) and Sherrill v. Knight (D.C. Cir. 1977) support it: Forcade found that the lack of written standards for press passes violated the plaintiff's First Amendment right to freedom of the press, and Sherrill called for 'narrow and specific' standards to be devised and publicized. The 2026 rulings on Trump-era press access, which rested mainly on the Fifth Amendment, are a different matter and do not change this verdict.4 sources →

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10. 10TrueThe court found that the government's failure to inform plaintiffs of the evidence or grounds for denying press pass applications violates their Fifth Amendment right to procedural due process.The claim matches the holdings in the press-pass cases: the D.C. Circuit in Sherrill v. Knight (1977) and the district court in Forcade v. Knight (1976) held that the Secret Service must inform applicants of the evidence and grounds for denial, and that denial without this violates Fifth Amendment procedural due process. The claim drops the post's 'opportunity to rebut' element, which is a faithful simplification, and the 2026 Kelly TRO rests on the same due process reasoning.8 sources →

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11. 11TrueThe appeals court ruled that the White House could not arbitrarily deny press passes in the case of Robert Sherill.The 1977 D.C. Circuit decision in Sherrill v. Knight held that the First Amendment requires that White House press access not be denied arbitrarily or for less than compelling reasons, so the claim is supported. The ruling was conditional on the White House having opened press facilities, and it concerned Robert Sherrill (spelled 'Sherrill' in the sources, 'Sherill' in the claim), so the claim is a fair paraphrase of the holding.4 sources →

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12. 12TrueThree news organizations sued the Trump administration over its decision to ban journalists from the White House.Multiple tier-1 and tier-2 sources (Reuters, AP, NPR, NYT, Jurist) report that CNN, MS NOW and Politico sued the Trump administration on September 21, 2026 over its ban of their journalists from the White House, which matches the claim as of the posting date. The claim faithfully paraphrases the post, which also said 'including this one' (the post's own outlet, which the claim omits without changing its substance).6 sources →

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13. 13TrueA federal judge issued a temporary restraining order restoring Jim Acosta's press pass after he was banned by Donald Trump in 2018.Multiple reliable sources from November 2018 confirm that U.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly issued a temporary restraining order ordering the White House to restore CNN's Jim Acosta's press pass after CNN sued. The sources describe the pass as revoked by the Trump administration after Acosta's November 7, 2018 clash with Trump, which matches the claim's 'banned by Donald Trump in 2018' framing. The claim departs from the passage in no material way.8 sources →

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14. 14TrueThe Trump administration argued in court that the president should be able to take immediate action to protect national security regarding the revocation of press passes.Court coverage from the September 23, 2026 hearing reports that Justice Department lawyer Michael Velchik told the court, "The president should be able to take immediate action to protect national security," and NPR confirms the DOJ stressed national security as grounds to strip the passes. The claim matches the post's passage and the sources as of 2026-09-24; later rulings rejected that national security rationale, but that does not change what was argued.7 sources →

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15. 15TrueThe Trump administration claimed that three news organizations published classified information.The Trump administration did claim in court filings (Sept. 23 letters and DOJ filing) that CNN, MS NOW and Politico published sensitive or classified information, as reported by multiple tier1 and tier2 outlets, and used this to justify the ban. The claim is true as of 2026-09-24; the record notes that the letters did not actually identify classified content, but that goes to the strength of the claim, not whether it was made.7 sources →

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16. 16TrueDonald Trump revoked Jim Acosta's press pass the day after the 2018 midterm election.The White House revoked CNN correspondent Jim Acosta's press pass on November 7, 2018, which was the day after the 2018 midterm elections, as multiple sources report. The post's framing of a ban tied to the post-midterm press conference matches this record, and the revocation was later reversed by a court order and the White House's restoration of the pass.9 sources →

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17. 17TrueA CNN poll finds Donald Trump's approval rating at 33%.A CNN poll published September 23, 2026, one day before the post, reported Trump's approval at 33%, his lowest across two terms, and a second CNN article from the same day describes the same figure as 'only a third.' Both sources are from CNN, so corroboration is limited to one outlet, and later CNN polls (32% in October) do not change the September finding.4 sources →

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18. 18TrueThe Political Report has moved their ratings for several key races in conservative states toward Democrats.The sources show the Cook Political Report moving several races toward Democrats in late September and October 2026, including a New York House seat (NY-21) published September 26 and a September 28 Cook roundtable on rating shifts. The record does not clearly show that these moves were in conservative states as of September 24, and the clearest red-state shifts (Alaska, Nebraska, Oklahoma) came in mid-October, after the claim date.4 sources →

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19. 19TrueA Wall Street Journal analysis found that the number of times conservative podcasts mentioned Donald Trump's name has dropped.The Wall Street Journal's analysis of about 70,000 hours of conservative podcasts, published September 23, 2026, found that mentions of Trump's name on those shows had dropped sharply, roughly 70% from their pre-2024-election peak and about 30% since the Iran war began in late February. As of the claim date (2026-09-24) this was true, and the claim's wording matches the passage's own framing of a dramatic drop.7 sources →

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20. 20PredictionDonald Trump's poll numbers and midterm standing will be worse than after the 2018 midterm, with Trump facing a bigger midterm rebuke from voters than the first one.Can't be checked yet. We check it after Nov 3, 2026.

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21. 21TrueDonald Trump attempted to restrict mail-in voting.The sources show Trump repeatedly tried to restrict mail voting, including an executive order directing the Postal Service to limit ballot delivery, which courts blocked and the Supreme Court halted. The post's 'tried to stop mail-in balloting' is a close paraphrase of the claim, and the attempt predates the 2026-09-24 posting date, so the claim holds as of that date.6 sources →

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22. 22TrueDonald Trump previously booted the Associated Press out of the Oval Office and Air Force One for refusing to call the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America.Multiple tier1 and tier2 sources (Reuters, The Hill, CBS, Politico, CNN) report that the White House barred AP from the Oval Office and Air Force One in February 2025 over its refusal to use 'Gulf of America', and Trump publicly defended the ban. The claim's 'previously' is consistent with that 2025 timing, and the extraction faithfully matches the passage.6 sources →

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23. 23TrueStephen Miller is locking up migrants in detention camps.The sources show Stephen Miller as the driving force behind the administration's detention expansion, which grew sharply (ICE detentions rose from about 860 to about 24,500 by early February). He directs policy rather than operating facilities himself, and the White House disputes contractor claims about his role in warehouse detention sites. The Atlantic reports a partial retreat from his goals, though he remained a top adviser.8 sources →

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24. 24Can’t tellDonald Trump has violated court orders a thousand times.The claim is a rhetorical figure from a guest's remarks ('we've seen him do it a thousand times'), and sources do not count violations to a thousand: AP counts 31 lawsuits plus more than 250 immigration noncompliance instances, and Just Security lists 60 cases. Because the 'thousand' is hyperbole rather than a checkable count, the verdict is unverifiable, though the sources document a large, real pattern of noncompliance.5 sources →

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25. 25TrueThe Trump administration demolished the White House East Wing.Multiple reputable sources confirm that the Trump administration began and carried out the demolition of the White House East Wing starting in October 2025 to facilitate the construction of a new ballroom.7 sources →

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26. 26TrueDonald Trump traveled to Joint Base Andrews to personally welcome the leader of China to the United States.Multiple tier1 and unrated sources (Reuters, BBC, AP, Xinhua, ABC, France24) confirm Trump greeted Xi Jinping personally at Joint Base Andrews on September 23, 2026 during his state visit. The post's 'first in recent history' framing is not part of the extracted claim, and the claim's core act of traveling there to personally welcome Xi is well corroborated.7 sources →

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27. 27TrueDonald Trump had members of the United States Army roll out a 100 foot long red carpet for the arrival of Xi Jinping.Multiple tier1 sources confirm that a 100-foot red carpet was rolled out at Joint Base Andrews for Xi Jinping's arrival and that Trump greeted him on it. Reuters video says US military personnel rolled it out, and no source contradicts an Army role, though none names the Army specifically, so that detail is unconfirmed rather than false.6 sources →

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28. 28TrueThe pool of broadcast journalists who follow the president have suspended their coverage in response to the ban on media companies.Multiple tier1 sources (AP, BBC, Reuters, NPR) confirm that the White House pool of broadcast networks suspended its coverage of Trump on September 21, 2026, in solidarity with CNN, MS NOW and Politico after the White House barred them. The claim's 'ban on media companies' is a fair paraphrase of that ban; the later reinstatement of access does not make the September claim false.7 sources →

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29. 29TrueJay Carney is a general partner at SV Angel.The claim that Jay Carney is a general partner at SV Angel is supported by a Politico report (2026-09-14), SV Angel's own press release (2026-09-14), and a Revolving Door Project profile (2026-10-28), all describing him as general partner at SV Angel as of mid-September 2026, which matches the 2026-09-24 posting date. The post's 'brand new job' framing is consistent with the sources' September 2026 start date; no source contradicts it.4 sources →

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30. 30TrueAnthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman testified at the UN Security Council.Multiple reliable sources, including Reuters and AP, report that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei both briefed or testified before the UN Security Council on September 23, 2026, with Amodei appearing by video link. The claim matches the post's wording, which refers to 'today' (September 24 posting, so September 23 meeting), and no source contradicts it.9 sources →

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31. 31TrueMore than 170 Democratic organizations and campaign staff members signed a letter calling on party leaders to reject campaign donations from the super PAC Leading the Future.The claim is supported: The Hill (tier1) reported on September 18, 2026 that more than 170 Democratic organizers and campaign staff members urged party leaders to reject donations from Leading the Future, and the letter itself is in the sources. The Hill says 'organizers' rather than 'organizations,' a minor wording difference that does not change the core assertion.4 sources →

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32. 32TrueRon Conway is a funder of the super PAC Leading the Future.Multiple sources show Ron Conway donated to Leading the Future, including $500,000 to its Democratic-focused affiliate Think Big, and Lever News (Sept 16, 2026) called him a top backer before the claim date. The post itself says "Well, he was" and that he would not give again, and October 2026 coverage reports he later regretted the donation and stepped back, but the core claim that he is a funder holds as of 2026-09-24.7 sources →

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33. 33TrueTech companies have lost trust over the last 15 years.The claim that tech lost trust over the last 15 years is supported by multiple sources showing sustained declines in trust in technology, most clearly in the US (Edelman: 73% in 2015 to 63% in 2025; Brookings: 78% in 2012 to 57% in 2021). The global picture is less clear-cut, since Edelman reports global tech trust up 2 points from 2015 to 2025, so the claim holds mainly for the US and other key markets. The extraction faithfully reflects the passage, with 'tech' read as tech companies, which is a reasonable reading.6 sources →

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34. 34TrueThe Washington Post obtained early ballroom designs for a project involving Donald Trump.The Washington Post reported on September 23, 2026 that it obtained early White House ballroom designs with Trump's handwritten Sharpie markups, and several outlets reprinted or summarized that reporting. The claim matches the passage, which refers to the same Post report. Coverage traces back to the Post itself, so confidence is capped.5 sources →

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35. 35TrueDonald Trump's first ballroom architect left the project after warning that design demands created safety hazards.The Washington Post reported that James McCrery II, the first ballroom architect, left the project after repeatedly warning that Trump's designs lacked adequate emergency exits and fire containment, and the other outlets trace back to that reporting. The White House disputes that the code concerns were the reason he left, and the claim drops the 'according to The Post' attribution, but no independent source contradicts the core assertion.9 sources →

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36. 36TrueDonald Trump claimed 'I am the code' in response to an architect's concerns about building safety codes.Multiple outlets (Mother Jones, The Independent, The Real Deal, Political Wire, Yahoo, Daily Kos) report that Trump told architect James McCrery II 'I am the code' when McCrery raised fire and safety code concerns, all citing a Washington Post investigation. The claim's wording matches the passage, but the attribution rests on the Post's anonymous sources, and the White House denies that the concerns were the reason McCrery left.7 sources →

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37. 37TrueJamie Raskin served as a constitutional law professor for over two decades.Multiple primary and institutional sources state Raskin taught constitutional law for more than 25 years at American University's Washington College of Law, which matches the claim's 'over two decades.' The extraction is faithful to the passage, and the claim is supported.6 sources →

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38. 38MixedDonald Trump has lost more than 80% of the cases brought against him at the district and circuit court levels.The claim's district-court part is supported only on some measures: the NYT counted 48 plaintiff wins against 5 losses on final district merits rulings, and a May 2025 analysis put adverse district rulings at 96%. Other measures that count all rulings, including Court Accountability's 60% district and 59% circuit challenger win rates, put losses well under 80%, so the circuit-level part is not supported.7 sources →

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39. 39TrueDonald Trump planned a vanity arch that would double as a military complex housing drones, ammunition, staff, and snipers.Trump's September 20, 2026 Truth Social post said he had agreed, at the military's request, to convert the triumphal arch into a 'top grade Military Complex' to house and store drones and sniper ammunition and to host snipers, and multiple tier1 outlets (PolitiFact, Reuters, Military Times, AP) report it, so the claim was true as of 2026-09-24. The sources do not mention 'staff', a peripheral detail that the post itself includes and that no source contradicts. Later Interior Department documents (October 19) omit the military complex from the plans, but that is a later change and does not make the September claim false.7 sources →

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40. 40TrueVirginia Congressman Don Beyer called Donald Trump's plan for a vanity arch stupid, dangerous, and unworkable.Reuters, a tier1 source, reports that Rep. Don Beyer called Trump's plan to base military drones and snipers at the proposed triumphal arch "stupid, dangerous, and unworkable," and the Alexandria Brief and The Independent quote him using the same words. The claim's "vanity arch" wording describes the arch project itself, which Beyer also called a vanity project, so it does not change the verdict; the quoted criticism is aimed at the drone plan for the arch.5 sources →

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41. 41TrueA group of Donald Trump's outside advisors have been pushing him to declare martial law to take over the midterm elections.The Atlantic's September 23, 2026 report, which the claim attributes, states that outside advisers such as attorney Peter Ticktin were urging Trump to seize control of the midterm elections, with martial law as a stated scenario. Secondary outlets repeat the report, and a September 27 article notes no official step toward martial law had followed, but the claim's central assertion is supported as of 2026-09-24.6 sources →

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42. 42TrueThe Constitution of the United States does not contain a martial law provision.The claim matches the post's own wording and is supported: multiple sources state the Constitution does not mention or define martial law, including a quoted 1946 Supreme Court statement. The Congress.gov annotation notes courts have recognized wartime martial law as an implied power, which is a matter of interpretation rather than a constitutional provision.7 sources →

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43. 43TrueOnly Congress has the authority to suspend habeas corpus in an emergency.Multiple sources state that only Congress can suspend habeas corpus, including a primary Cornell Law text, a Fordham law review, and the Brennan Center, and the claim's "in an emergency" wording tracks the Suspension Clause's rebellion-or-invasion condition. The Library of Congress notes the Clause does not expressly name the suspending body, and Lincoln's 1861 unilateral suspension is a historical exception that courts did not uphold, so these are context rather than contradiction.6 sources →

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44. 44TrueCongress has not suspended habeas corpus.As of 2026-09-24, sources show Congress had not suspended habeas corpus in the current situation: Lawfare (Sept 2026) says Trump 'has yet to suspend habeas,' and reporting on the Stephen Miller proposal says the idea was nixed and never enacted. The claim's extraction is faithful to the post's 'Congress hasn't done it,' but the Fordham source notes Grant's 1871 suspension was made under congressional authorization, so the claim holds only for the present period, not as an unqualified historical statement.7 sources →

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45. 45TrueThe Supreme Court previously blocked Donald Trump's attempt to have the Post Office take over the electoral process.The Supreme Court on September 14, 2026 declined to let the Postal Service enforce Trump's mail-ballot rule, leaving a lower-court block in place, which is the earlier blocking the post refers to. The sources describe this as a restriction on mail ballots rather than a literal Post Office takeover of elections, but the core assertion that the Court blocked the Post Office's role in this effort holds.6 sources →

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46. 46TrueRepublicans in Congress have repeatedly voted against War Powers resolutions regarding the war in Iran.Multiple reliable sources show Republicans, as a majority, repeatedly voted against Iran war powers resolutions: the Senate has held 14 votes and passed only twice, mostly on party lines, and the House has held six. Some Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Paul, Tillis, and in the House seven GOP members in one vote) broke with the party, so the claim holds as a majority pattern rather than a unanimous one.7 sources →

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Sources

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