Polygraph

As of 12:00 PM ET, the national early vote total is 27,627,701.

Posted by Speaker Mike Johnson, Checked Updated

Polygraph verdictFalse
Sources
6 contradict
Said
2 times·
Confidence
80%
Speaker Mike Johnson@SpeakerJohnsonOct 27, 2026
View on X ↗
4 claimsThe check →

The claimed national early vote total of 27,627,701 as of 12:00 PM ET on 2026-10-27 is contradicted by multiple sources that put the national count above 29 million by Monday, October 26, and about 32 million by October 27.

A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What we found

Contradicts. AP (tier1) reports more than 30 million early votes cast as of Monday, October 26, and nearly 4 million more reported since Friday, well above the claimed 27.6 million.[1]

Contradicts. NBC News' tracker (tier2) showed 29,163,839 ballots cast nationally at its 11 a.m. ET update on Monday, October 26, and the UF Election Lab (primary) showed 29,417,415 at 11:20 a.m. ET, both above the claimed figure for a later time.[2][3][4]

Contradicts. Cumulative early vote totals only rise over time, so a 12:00 PM ET figure on October 27 should be above the roughly 29.2 to 29.4 million recorded on the morning of October 26, not 27.6 million; the only lower figure in the sources (26,974,129) is from early Sunday, October 25.[4]

Contradicts. Trackers dated October 27 report about 32.2 million (OnPoint) and about 30.0 million (Who Shows Up), again exceeding the claimed total. These are unrated and rely on different state coverage, so they are weaker evidence than the AP and NBC/UF figures.[5][6]

Context. The claim's time and figure match the passage exactly, so there is no extraction drift. The passage's internal per-channel numbers do not sum to its headline total.

Sources

6 sources: 1 fact-checker, 1 primary, 1 tier 2, 3 not rated

  1. 1Trump rallies in Mississippi as GOP midterm woes mountapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts
  2. 22026 Early Voting - UF Election Lab - University of Floridaelection.lab.ufl.edu · primary source · cited for: contradicts
  3. 3Tracking the 2026 Early Vote: Midterm Electionsnbcnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
  4. 4Early vote tracker: Where ballots stand 8 days before Nov. 3newscubby.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  5. 52026 Early Vote Tracker: Ballots Cast by State | On Point ...onpointpolitics.us · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  6. 62026 Early Vote Tracker: 30.0 Million Ballots Cast (Updated ...whoshowsup.net · not rated · cited for: contradicts

Where this claim was made

Said in 2 published posts

Checked 2 times

Each check reads the sources again. The newest verdict is the one this page states.

  1. · latestFalse
  2. False

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