Polygraph

Burglary and trespassing fell 25% nationwide in 2025.

Posted by Speaker Mike Johnson, Checked

Polygraph verdictMixed
Sources
3 contradict3 support1 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
60%
Speaker Mike Johnson@SpeakerJohnsonOct 27, 2026
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🚨Communities are SAFER thanks to Republicans! New data shows serious violent crime fell 25% nationwide in 2025. 🔻 Aggravated assault DOWN 31% 🔻 Motor vehicle theft DOWN 30% 🔻 Burglary and trespassing DOWN 25% 🔻 Property victimization DOWN 19% Republicans are fighting for you and your family. Democrats want to defund the police, abolish prisons, and endanger Americans! https://t.co/kTNp23nGql

6 claimsThe check →

The 25% decline is supported by the BJS National Crime Victimization Survey, which counts burglary or trespassing incidents whether or not they were reported to police. Police-reported measures in the same period show smaller declines of about 8.6% to 17%, so the figure holds under one measure and fails under another.

A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.

What we found

Contradicts. The BJS Crime Known to Law Enforcement 2025 report, based on NIBRS police data, shows burglary victimization rates down 17% from 2024 to 2025, not 25%.[3]

Contradicts. The UCR summary of 2025 reported crimes shows burglary offenses down an estimated 15.8%, and the FBI's 2024 summary reported burglaries down 8.6%, so police-reported declines are materially smaller than 25%.[1][5]

Supports. The BJS Office of Public Affairs release reports that the rates of burglary or trespassing fell 25% from 2024 to 2025 in preliminary NCVS estimates.[4]

Supports. Washington Examiner coverage of the Justice Department survey reports a 25% decline in burglary and trespassing victimization, about 460,000 incidents, and says the decline was the largest single-year drop in the survey's history for that category.[6]

Supports. Yahoo coverage of the preliminary DOJ survey results also reports burglary and trespassing down 25%, though it is an unrated secondary report that repeats the BJS figure.[7]

Context. PolitiFact notes that the NCVS and police-reported data differ in methodology because the NCVS includes crimes not reported to law enforcement, which can produce different pictures of crime trends.[2]

Sources

7 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 2 primary, 3 not rated

  1. 1US violent crime fell 4.5% in 2024, down for second year ...reuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts
  2. 2Crime is underreported, but not just in Washington, D.C. ... - PolitiFactpolitifact.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
  3. 3bjs.ojp.gov › crime-known-law-enforcement-2025Crime Known to Law Enforcement, 2025 - Bureau of Justice ...bjs.ojp.gov · primary source · cited for: contradicts
  4. 4Office of Public Affairs | National Crime Victimization ...justice.gov · primary source · cited for: supports
  5. 5UCR Summary of Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2025midmichigannow.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  6. 6DOJ report shows crime decrease between 2024 and 2025washingtonexaminer.com · not rated · cited for: supports
  7. 7Violent crime victimization fell 25% in 2025, DOJ survey ...yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: supports

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