Aggravated assault fell 31% nationwide in 2025.
Posted by Speaker Mike Johnson, Checked
- Sources
- 2 contradict4 support3 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 65%
Speaker Mike Johnson@SpeakerJohnsonOct 27, 2026🚨Communities are SAFER thanks to Republicans! New data shows serious violent crime fell 25% nationwide in 2025. 🔻 Aggravated assault DOWN 31% 🔻 Motor vehicle theft DOWN 30% 🔻 Burglary and trespassing DOWN 25% 🔻 Property victimization DOWN 19% Republicans are fighting for you and your family. Democrats want to defund the police, abolish prisons, and endanger Americans! https://t.co/kTNp23nGql
The 31% figure is accurate under the DOJ Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Victimization Survey, which reports aggravated assault victimization falling from 4.5 to 3.1 per 1,000 persons. Under the FBI's reported-crime measure, aggravated assault fell only about 7.2% in 2025, so the claim holds under one national measure and fails under the other.
A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.
What we found
Contradicts. The FBI's preliminary 2025 data from its Crime Data Explorer show aggravated assault decreased an estimated 7.2% from 2024 to 2025, a far smaller decline than 31%.[2][4]
Supports. The BJS National Crime Victimization Survey reports the aggravated assault rate declined 31%, from 4.5 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2024 to 3.1 per 1,000 in 2025.[3][5]
Supports. CBS News and other outlets repeat the NCVS figure of a 31% drop in aggravated assault victimization, with about 390,000 fewer incidents, though these reports trace back to the same DOJ survey release rather than independent data.[5][6][7]
Context. The FBI's violent crime rate fell 9.7% and the murder rate fell 18.5% in 2025, and the Council on Criminal Justice reports aggravated assaults down 9% across 22 to 35 sample cities, so the FBI-based and city-based measures point to declines much smaller than 31%.[1][8][9]
Context. The NCVS and FBI measure different things: the survey counts victimizations including unreported crimes, while the FBI counts offenses reported to police, so the two figures are not directly comparable and the NCVS is a preliminary estimate.[2][3][4][7]
Sources
9 sources: 1 fact-checker, 2 primary, 4 not rated, 1 tier 2, 1 rated low
- 1Trump's Misleading Crime Drop Claims - FactCheck.orgfactcheck.org · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 2FBI Releases Historic Early Look at Annual Crime Data | Federal Bureau of Investigationfbi.gov · primary source · cited for: contradicts, context
- 3Office of Public Affairs | National Crime Victimization ...justice.gov · primary source · cited for: supports, context
- 4Violent crime in US fell at record pace in 2025stateline.org · not rated · cited for: contradicts, context
- 5Violent crime victimization fell 25% in 2025 over prior year ...cbsnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 6DOJ Report: Violent, Property Crime Fell in 2025yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 7Violent crime saw biggest-ever drop in 2025 in victims surveywashingtontimes.com · rated low for factual reporting by Iffy.news · cited for: supports, context
- 8Crime Trends in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2025 Updatecounciloncj.org · not rated · cited for: context
- 9Is crime going up or down in the US?usafacts.org · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post