Polygraph

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The Bulwark Daily

The Bulwark

Tim Miller and guests discuss the latest political news for the flagship podcast of the Never Trump movement and the reality-based community. Every weekday we provide insightful analysis, political hot-takes, an unabashed defense of liberal democracy and long-form interviews that cut through the "both-sides" BS. Plus a few laughs to help you wash down the crazy. Bulwark+ members can get a totally ad-free version of the show delivered right to their favorite podcast player.

Can’t tell30% confidence6 sourcesSep 29, 2026Democrats are planning to cheat in the upcoming midterm elections.Said by AThe claim departs from the passage: the post's "they" refers to Trump and his administration, who it accuses of trying to rig the midterms, not to Democrats. The sources describe Democrats preparing defensively for interference and fraud claims, and Republicans and the administration as the side accused of rigging, so nothing here supports or refutes a claim that Democrats plan to cheat.Can’t tell30% confidence5 sourcesSep 29, 2026A drone parts manufacturer backed by Donald Trump Jr. congratulated a drone manufacturer backed by Eric Trump on winning a Department of Defense contract.The sources confirm that Donald Trump Jr. backs Unusual Machines and that Eric Trump backs Xtend and Powerus, and that Unusual Machines and Xtend have won defense work. No source reports that Unusual Machines congratulated any Eric Trump-backed company on a DOD contract, so the central act is unaddressed. The claim matches the post's wording, so this is not an extraction departure.Can’t tell35% confidence8 sourcesSep 29, 2026The Chili Pad 2.0 has a value of up to 1038 dollars when including a three-year protection plan.Said by ANone of the sources mentions a $1,038 figure or defines a 'value' that includes a three-year protection plan. Sources show the Chilipad 2.0 priced from $1,599 to $3,198 and the three-year plan at $199 (Yahoo, Mattress Clarity) or $398 (Business Insider), so $1,038 cannot be checked as a total and does not match any listed price. The claim matches the passage's wording, which describes the plan as free, and the sources do not show whether that offer existed on 2026-09-29.Can’t tell35% confidence6 sourcesSep 29, 2026There are laws that apply to judges and members of Congress that do not apply to the president and the vice president.Said by BThe sources do not directly test the claim that some laws apply to judges and members of Congress but not to the president and vice president. The main conflict-of-interest and emergency-powers statutes in the sources exempt all of these officials alike, which cuts against the claim's implied asymmetry, but the impeachment and Texas Law Review sources do not settle the point either way.Can’t tell50% confidence4 sourcesSep 29, 2026Vladimir Putin told a head of state that Evan Gershkovich was a spy who operated too openly.Said by 3CThe sources corroborate that Putin told a world leader Gershkovich was an intelligence operative and said he was 'much too obvious,' but the extracted claim's 'operated too openly' is not in the passage, which says only 'a stupid spy,' so the claim departs from the post and is graded unverifiable.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.Can’t tell30% confidence5 sourcesSep 29, 2026Vladimir Putin expressed confusion to Tucker Carlson that the United States would work to secure the release of a basketball player but not a spy.Said by 3CNo source reports Putin telling Carlson he was confused that the US would work harder to recover a basketball player than a spy; the claim comes from the post's own account of a post-interview Kremlin tour. The sources cover the February 2024 Carlson interview and Putin's remarks on Gershkovich, but none addresses this tour remark, so it can be neither confirmed nor refuted.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.Can’t tell40% confidence9 sourcesSep 29, 2026A man Evan Gershkovich met in prison was sentenced to 17 years for spray-painting four words on a wall protesting the war.Said by 3CThe claim's central figure (17-year sentence for spray-painting four words protesting the war) is not found in the sources; the passage describes an unnamed prisoner Gershkovich met, and the sources cover other anti-war graffiti cases (Lizunova, Kozyreva, Razumova, Bushuev) but none matching a four-word wall protest with a 17-year sentence. The claim departs from the passage, which does not state a four-word count in a way that matches the sentence length as checked, and the sources do not identify the man.Can’t tell35% confidence6 sourcesSep 29, 2026Money was stolen for the ballroom, the arch, and Pentagon contracts with Trump family members.The sources document ballroom donors, Trump-family-linked Pentagon loans and contracts, and Democratic plans to investigate them, but none establishes that money was stolen; they report allegations, inquiries, and denials. The claim also departs from the passage's framing in one respect: the sources do not address the arch at all.Can’t tell40% confidence6 sourcesSep 29, 2026The Trump administration is planning to go raid voting machines.Said by BThe sources show officials, agents and commentators fearing or speculating that the Trump administration could seize voting machines, and they document a January 2026 FBI seizure of 2020 election records in Fulton County. None of them documents a plan to raid voting machines, and the CNN report says the administration has not yet taken such action. The claim is also a paraphrase of the speaker's view of what 'they' want, so it is graded as an unconfirmed future plan rather than a documented fact as of 2026-09-29.

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