Polygraph

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Letters from an American

Heather Cox Richardson

Heather Cox Richardson's narrated newsletter about the history behind today's politics. heathercoxrichardson.substack.com

True80% confidence6 sourcesSep 15, 2026Senator Alex Padilla and Senator Chuck Schumer wrote a letter to Secretary of Homeland Security Mark Wayne Mullen and U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Joseph B. Edlow regarding the voter database.Said by AMultiple sources report that Senators Padilla and Schumer sent a letter to DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and USCIS Director Joseph Edlow about the DHS voter-data initiative, which supports the claim. The claim spells the secretary's name 'Mark Wayne Mullen', but the sources give 'Markwayne Mullin', which is a spelling variant for the same official and does not change the referent.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.True68% confidence5 sourcesSep 15, 2026Inspectors under the direction of top Homeland Security leaders have about twelve minutes per case to determine a voter's citizenship status and voting history.Said by AMultiple sources, including a primary Senate whistleblower letter, report a quota of 40 cases per day over eight hours (about 12 minutes per case) for USCIS staff working on the DHS Unlawful Voter Initiative under top DHS direction. The claim drops the attribution to the whistleblower, so it is effectively the whistleblower's account, though no source disputes the figure and the DHS statement does not contradict it.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.True80% confidence6 sourcesSep 15, 2026The Department of Homeland Security's training video states that the voter database was compiled with supplemental magic.Said by AMultiple sources quote the DHS training video as describing the data as compiled with "supplemental magic," which matches the claim. The extraction faithfully reflects the passage, and the claim is about the training video's content rather than whether the phrase is meaningful. Most of these reports trace back to the same whistleblower disclosure, so independence is limited.Disputed in the post.True90% confidence4 sourcesSep 15, 2026The Environmental Protection Agency intends to prevent future administrations from enacting regulations on greenhouse gas emissions from power plants.Said by AMultiple tier1 and tier2 sources (AP, Reuters, NBC, Politico, LA Times) report that on September 14, 2026 the EPA repealed greenhouse gas limits on coal and gas power plants and proposed a separate step to prevent future administrations from regulating power plant climate pollution, which matches the claim's core assertion as of the 2026-09-15 post date. The claim's wording is a faithful paraphrase of the passage, and the 'today' in the post resolves to the September 14 announcement.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.True85% confidence9 sourcesSep 15, 2026Members of the Trump family are heavily invested in AI-related industries.Said by AMultiple independent reports (Washington Post analysis, Reuters, and outlets repeating it) document Trump family members, including sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, holding stakes in AI-related companies, data centers, and chip/infrastructure firms as of September 2026, so the claim was true on 2026-09-15. The claim's wording matches the post's own phrasing, and the post's title and referents resolve to the Trump family; the sources describe the investments but do not state the post's exact 'heavily' emphasis in a numerical way, which is a minor qualifier.True90% confidence7 sourcesSep 15, 2026The Environmental Protection Agency is removing rules that limit greenhouse gas emissions from coal and natural gas power plants.Said by AMultiple tier1 and primary sources (AP, Reuters, EPA fact sheet, Federal Register, Harvard EELP) confirm that on September 14, 2026, the EPA finalized repeal of most 2024 greenhouse gas standards for coal- and gas-fired power plants, which is before the claim's 2026-09-15 date, so the claim held as of that date. The claim's wording matches the passage's own statement that the EPA is getting rid of these rules; the Federal Register publication and effective date (Nov. 16, 2026) are later developments that do not change the claim's status on the posting date.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.True92% confidence7 sourcesSep 15, 2026The Supreme Court refused to allow Donald Trump to implement new orders for the United States Postal Service to screen mail-in ballots.The sources consistently report that on September 14, 2026, the Supreme Court declined to let the U.S. Postal Service enforce its rule on mail-in ballots, leaving in place a lower-court injunction, which matches the claim. The rule is described as a screening mechanism (voter lists and barcoded envelopes checked against voter lists), and the ruling was an emergency order, not a final decision on legality, which the sources note.True85% confidence8 sourcesSep 15, 2026A Russian oligarch spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding.ProPublica's reporting, confirmed in part by the AP, Reuters, PBS, NBC and USA Today, says Umar Kremlev paid hundreds of thousands of dollars for Trump Jr.'s May 2026 Bahamas wedding celebrations, including a private island and fireworks. The couple clarified the spending covered the post-wedding festivities rather than the ceremony itself, a nuance the summary notes but which does not overturn the core claim.True85% confidence5 sourcesSep 15, 2026A whistleblower alleged that inspectors under the direction of top Homeland Security leadership broke state laws to find noncitizens on voter rolls.A federal whistleblower's account, relayed by Senators Padilla and Schumer and documented in a Senate letter to DHS's inspector general, does allege that DHS personnel may have broken state laws while hunting for noncitizens on voter rolls. The claim drops the post's hedge "may have," so it states the allegation more firmly than the sources, but it is graded as an allegation that was made, which the sources support.True95% confidence7 sourcesSep 13, 2026Donald Trump claims he won three presidential elections.Said by AThe claim is a faithful extraction of Trump's post that he 'won three times', and it describes the act of claiming, which the sources confirm. Multiple tier1 and tier2 outlets (FactCheck.org, AP, PolitiFact, NBC, NYT) document Trump repeatedly asserting he won three presidential elections, though they rate the substance as false because he won only two (2016 and 2024).Reported in the post, not stated as its own.True90% confidence6 sourcesSep 13, 2026Judge J. Michael Luttig published a warning in The New Republic regarding how Republicans could refuse to seat elected Democrats in January 2027.Said by AMultiple independent outlets confirm that retired judge J. Michael Luttig wrote a New Republic essay warning that House Republicans could refuse to seat elected Democrats when the new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027. The post's date (September 12) and the essay's date (September 10, per several sources) differ, but that peripheral detail does not affect the core claim.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.True60% confidence7 sourcesSep 13, 2026House Speaker Mike Johnson has the power to remove the current House Clerk, Kevin McCumber, and replace him temporarily with a MAGA loyalist.Said by AMultiple sources, all tracing to Luttig's analysis and a Toobin column, report that the Speaker has unilateral power under House Rule II, Clause 1 to remove the clerk and under 2 U.S.C. § 5501(a) to replace him temporarily. The claim's 'MAGA loyalist' element describes a hypothetical scenario rather than the power itself, and the sources do not show that the power has been exercised or that a fact-checker has rated it. Confidence is capped because the sources restate the same legal analysis and no primary House Rules text is provided.Reported in the post, not stated as its own.

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