Republican Governor Greg Abbott has a four or five point lead over his Democratic challenger in Texas.
Posted by The Fox News Rundown, Checked
- Sources
- 3 contradict2 support2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 55%
The Fox News RundownOct 23, 2026
Several polls released around the claim date show Abbott leading by four or five points (ActiVote 5.0 from Oct 21, Emerson 49-45 released Oct 22, Marist 49-45 among likely voters from Oct 8-11), but other polls show leads of about 1 to 3 points (TPOR 3 released Oct 23, ReconMR 1 from Oct 13).
A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… Did they stay home and they say, yeah, I want Republicans to be in control, but I can't vote for this guy? And, you know, Republican Governor Greg Abbott there does have a lead, four or five points, I believe, on his Democratic challenger. So does, you know, Abbott pull along Paxton with him, or does Paxton pull down the ballot? That's, you know, that's been a big question, too. …
The Fox News Rundown · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. The Texas Public Opinion Research poll (Oct 15-18), released Oct 23, showed Abbott leading by only 3 points, down from 7 in August.[1]
Contradicts. The ReconMR poll from Oct 13 showed Abbott leading only 48% to 47%, and the UT/Texas Politics Project poll from the same period had Hinojosa ahead 49% to 48%.[2][3]
Supports. ActiVote's October 21 poll (400 likely voters, field Oct 17-21) reported Abbott leading Hinojosa 52.5% to 47.5%, a 5-point margin, before the claim was posted.[4]
Supports. Emerson College's poll of 1,000 likely voters (Oct 17-19), released Oct 22, showed Abbott leading 49% to 45%, a four-point lead.[5]
Supports. The Marist October poll (Oct 8-11) found Abbott leading 49% to 45% among likely voters, a 4-point edge, though within the margin of error.[3]
Context. Later aggregates through November 1 put Abbott's average lead at roughly 1.5 to 2.6 points, and a Texas Politics Project tracker showed leads of two to five points in late-October surveys, so the four-to-five-point figure is at the high end of the range of polls.[6][7]
Sources
7 sources: 7 not rated
- 1Abbott's advantage narrows as Hinojosa gains ground in ...fox7austin.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 2New poll shows the Texas governor’s race flipping before early votingusatoday.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 3Marist Talarico-Paxton Texas Senate, Abbott-Hinojosa governor ...freep.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, supports
- 4TX Governor poll, Oct 21, 2026 - ActiVoteactivote.net · not rated · cited for: supports
- 5Abbott holds slim edge over Hinojosa in latest Texas ...fox26houston.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 62026 Texas gubernatorial election - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org · not rated · cited for: context
- 7Will ‘Gina' Break Texas's Corporate Welfare Consensus?prospect.org · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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