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The Supreme Court order stated that the government is unlikely to succeed on the merits regarding the Postal Service regulation.

Posted by Strict Scrutiny, Checked

Polygraph verdictTrue
Sources
3 support1 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
95%
Strict ScrutinySep 15, 2026
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The Supreme Court's unsigned order of September 14, 2026 (No. 26A305) states that the government 'is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge to the District Court's preliminary injunction,' matching the claim's wording; multiple reliable outlets and the Court's own text confirm it. The claim is a faithful extraction from the post and is graded as true.

What was said

… The Supreme Court order gave two reasons for why the lower court could block the Postal Service regulation, or at least why the Supreme Court wouldn't disturb that lower court order. First, the Supreme Court's order said the government is, quote, "unlikely to succeed on the merits." That is, a majority of justices seem to be of the correct view that the Postal Service does not, in fact, have the authority to engage mass disenfranchisement efforts that would supplant state election rules. …
Strict Scrutiny · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Supports. The Supreme Court's order itself states 'The Government is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge to the District Court's preliminary injunction.'[2]

Supports. Reuters and CNBC both quote the order's language that the government 'is unlikely to succeed on the merits' of its challenge, in an unsigned order denying the stay.[1][3]

Context. CNN notes the order was two sentences without underlying legal reasoning, and Justice Kavanaugh concurred while Alito and Thomas dissented; the merits-likelihood language itself is unaffected.[2][4]

Sources

4 sources: 1 fact-checker, 1 primary, 1 not rated, 1 tier 2

  1. 1In loss for Trump, US Supreme Court won't let Postal Service restrict mail ballotsreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
  2. 226A305 Postal Service v. California (09/14/2026)supremecourt.gov · primary source · cited for: supports, context
  3. 3Supreme Court rejects Trump bid to lift block on mail-in ...cnbc.com · not rated · cited for: supports
  4. 4What the Supreme Court's cryptic mail ballot ruling means ...cnn.com · tier 2 · cited for: context

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