In April 2025, 45% of Albertans expressed an interest in separation.
Posted by Power & Politics, Checked
- Sources
- 3 contradict1 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
Power & PoliticsOct 21, 2026
The only 45% separation figure in the sources comes from a Kolosowski Strategies poll conducted May 6–15, 2025, after the April 28 election, with methodology the sources say they could not verify. Polls conducted in April 2025 (Léger, April 10–14) show about 29–30% for separation, so the claim that 45% of Albertans expressed separation interest in April 2025 is contradicted.
What was said
… I mean, this has come at a pretty significant cost. I just wonder if you think it was all worth it. No, it certainly was worth it. When, uhm, when Mark Carney won in April of 2025, those who expressed an interest in separation was 45%. I mean, that is, uh, that would have been devastating had it stayed that high. And so the Prime Minister and I embarked on an 18-month pathway of addressing the grievances that we knew were fueling that, and I think that's part of the reason why the vote had …
Power & Politics · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. Polling in April 2025 put separation support near 30%: Angus Reid (reported April 7, 2025) found 30% of Albertans wanted to leave Canada, and Léger's April 10–14, 2025 online poll found 29%.[1][2]
Contradicts. The 45% figure is from a single Kolosowski Strategies poll conducted May 6–15, 2025, after the April 28 federal election, not in April as the claim states.[2][3]
Context. A Substack analysis could not locate the original Kolosowski questionnaire or full methodology and notes that the other polls tell a different story, so the 45% figure is not well corroborated even for May.[3]
Context. Post-election polling by INNOVATIVE Research showed separation support at 34% in May 2025 before softening, which is also below 45%.[4]
Sources
4 sources: 4 not rated
- 130% of Albertans want to leave Canada if Liberals win ...edmonton.citynews.ca · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 2Alberta separatist movement - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 3Hang On, Danielle. Where Did That 45% Come From?lenispooner.substack.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, context
- 4Alberta Post-Election Separatist Surge Begins to Recedeinnovativeresearch.ca · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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