Polygraph

James Talarico is polling plus 39 points among independent voters.

Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked

Polygraph verdictTrue
Sources
2 support4 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
65%
Louder with CrowderAug 19, 2026
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53 claimsThe check →

As of the August 19, 2026 posting date, the Fox News poll reported by HuffPost (Aug 3) showed Talarico with a 39-point lead among independents, matching the claim's figure.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… Look at where the race was between Beto O'roourke and Ted Cruz at this point in the 2018 cycle. Ted Cruz was a hit by six. This is very different. The Democrat here is doing nine points better. And what is supercharging that? Look at this: independence moved from tie to plus 39 points for James Talarico. Independence, the name of the game, shifting significantly to the left hand and supercharging James Talarico. It could be real. Every single time I look at the poll, going, Hmm, this can't be right, this could be very, very real. …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Supports. HuffPost's Harry Enten piece, published Aug 3, 2026, reports that a Fox News poll gave Talarico a substantial 39-point lead among independents.[1]

Supports. A later Mexico Times item citing the same Fox News poll of 1,006 Texas voters reports Talarico leading independents 68% to 29%, a 39-point advantage. This repeats the same poll, so it adds little independent corroboration.[2]

Context. Newsweek (Aug 4) reported a 40-point lead among independents in a different poll, the Texas Southern University survey, showing the figure varied by pollster.[3]

Context. Polls published after the posting date show Talarico's independent margins at different sizes (for example 16, 21, and 6 points), so the figure reflects a single poll at a point in time and not a stable average.[4][5][6]

Sources

6 sources: 1 tier 2, 5 not rated

  1. 1This Key Group Is 'Supercharging' James Talarico In Texas Senate Race, Harry Enten Sayshuffpost.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
  2. 2Get Out and Vote for James Talarico: Texas Can Choose ...x.com · not rated · cited for: supports
  3. 3James Talarico Support From Texas Independents Compared to ...newsweek.com · not rated · cited for: context
  4. 4Poll: Talarico leads Paxton as Election Day nears | FOX 26 Houstonfox26houston.com · not rated · cited for: context
  5. 5New poll shows Democrat smashing record held for 40 ...yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: context
  6. 6New Texas Senate poll shows challenge for GOP in final daysrmb.reuters.com · not rated · cited for: context

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Said in 1 published post

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