In the 2016 election, The New York Times and aggregate polling gave Hillary Clinton a 91% chance to beat Donald Trump.
Posted by Louder with Crowder, Checked
- Sources
- 2 support1 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 72%
Louder with CrowderAug 19, 2026
The New York Times forecast gave Hillary Clinton a 91% chance to win on October 28, 2016, and the same NYT note ties that figure to national polling averages, so the core claim is supported.
What was said
… It now is used to direct public sentiment. That's why people don't trust it. We've seen this for at least the last decade, and by that I mean getting things horribly wrong. Let's just start with 2016, right? Yeah, The New York Times and the aggregate polling out there, they gave Hillary a 91% chance to beat Trump. Also in that election, the aggregate polling had every single swing state wrong. 2020, even though, you know, when people talk this is also a reason people talk about election potential election fraud, I know uh safest and most fair ever, 2020, they were …
Louder with Crowder · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. A New York Times forecast page dated October 28, 2016 headlines 'Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance to win,' showing 91% for Clinton and 9% for Trump.[3]
Supports. The same NYT item says national polling averages had moved Clinton's win chances to 91 percent from 93 percent, which supports the claim's reference to aggregate polling.[3]
Supports. PolitiFact reports that at times during the 2016 campaign the NYT presidential forecast gave Clinton more than a 90 percent chance of winning.[1]
Context. The AP's 2016 coverage says major outlets had forecast an effortless Clinton win in the weeks before the election, which places the 91% figures within broader media forecasts.[2]
Sources
3 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 1 tier 2
- 1Trump: New York Times apologized for bad coverage of himpolitifact.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
- 2Polls vs. the Media: Where the 2016 election standsapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 3Hillary Clinton has a 91% chance to win → - The New York Timesnytimes.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
Related claims
- Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.True
- Donald Trump did not win the popular vote in the election that led to his first term.True
- The New York Times reported that Donald Trump hit a new low in polling.True
- Hillary Clinton won Orange County, California, in the 2016 presidential election.True
- In the 2020 election, polling overestimated Joe Biden's popularity by the worst margin of any polling in 40 years.True